Comment on Results Outlook Recommendation
2Q07 results were in line, with
bottomline up by 23% to y-o-y
HK$88.3m and revenue up by 27% yo-
y to HK$120m. The firm
performance was led by the Group’s
toll road business, which registered a
36% y-o-y increase in contribution to
overall PBT in 2Q07. This was
underpinned by increase in traffic
volume for both Guiliu Expressway
and Guihuang Highway as well as rate
hike increases for both these toll roads
during the quarter
An interim dividend of S 2.75cts was
declared, the same as last year.
We remain positive on the prospects
for CMH, whose earnings should be
driven in the long run by increasing
utilisation of its toll roads, as China’s
economy powers on and car
ownership in the PRC continues to rise.
Looking ahead, we are expecting a
stronger second half for the Group,
driven by a 30% rate hike increase for
Guihuang Highway w.e.f. 1 June as
well as an 8% rate hike for Guiliu
Expressway w.e.f. 10 May.
Offering a prospective net yield over
6.5%, we maintain our BUY call on CMH
(Pacific). Our target price of S$1.18 is
based on a target net yield of 5.5% for
FY08.
A potential catalyst for re-rating could
be in the form of toll road acquisitions,
following a recent corporate
restructuring exercise to bring majority
ownership of the Company directly
under the China Merchants Group from
China Merchants International
previously. We have not assumed any
acquisitions in our estimates.
Aqua-Terra Supply Co - Procuring a bright future
Story: Aqua-Terra (ATS) is an integrated service provider and
procurement specialist to the oil and gas industry, which has one
of the largest regional distributorships for 23 brands, and carries a
range of >160 consumable products. ATS’ consumable products
offering can easily meet more than 20% of its customers’ needs in
an otherwise fragmented industry.
Point: We believe ATS’ growth momentum will be augmented
by: 1) its success in securing projects as an integrated service
provider and procurement specialist, 2) more cross-selling
opportunities as it taps into the growing business network of KS
Energy, which is its parent company, and 3) its proven growth-byacquisition
strategy to expand product offerings and regional
customer network.
Relevance: We forecast ATS’ net profit to grow 84% y-o-y to a
record S$14.2m in FY07. Its net profit CAGR is expected to be 42%
in our FY07-09 forecast periods. We have a fair value of S$0.84 for
ATS, using 15x FY08 PER. The price upside potential to our fair
value estimate is 66%. As such, we are initiating coverage on ATS
with a BUY rating.
Moving up value chain. ATS’ success as a one-stop procurement specialist
for the oil and gas industry is expected to provide better earnings visibility
by entering into more long-term supply contracts. It has won a S$68m
order to provide integrated procurement and management services from
PRC-based China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC) Oil Base Group Ltd
in early 2007, and a US$14m contract win to procure and supply of marine
equipment & systems in Indonesia in August 2006. These will be
recognised in our FY07-09 forecast periods.
Growth-by-acquisition strategy is workable. This strategy offers ATS the
fastest way to build up its product and networking capabilities to ride on
the booming oil and gas industry. We believe ATS’ growth-by-acquisition
strategy will work as: 1) ATS has successfully made earnings accretive
purchases at low-to-mid single digit forward PER valuation from the pool
of unlisted smaller distributors, and 2) ATS has enabled acquired entities
thrive under its enlarged business umbrella. We estimate the contributions
from entities acquired before 2006 to account for 70-75% of the group’s
PBT in the FY05-06 periods.
Groundworks for growth. We expect ATS’ distribution business to benefit
in the FY07-09 forecast periods through: 1) its initiatives to further
penetrate the Chinese offshore market, 2) the strong rig deliveries in
Singapore and 3) the cross-selling opportunities and business referrals as
part of Mr. Kris Wiluan’s group of companies, which include KS Energy
and Citra Tubindo.
Record earnings year in FY07. We forecast ATS to achieve S$14.2m in
net profit in FY07, representing 84% y-o-y growth. This can be
attributed to the operating leverage effect brought about by ATS’
steady gross profit margins and strong revenue growth. We project ATS’
net profit CAGR to be 42% in our FY07-09 forecast periods.
procurement specialist to the oil and gas industry, which has one
of the largest regional distributorships for 23 brands, and carries a
range of >160 consumable products. ATS’ consumable products
offering can easily meet more than 20% of its customers’ needs in
an otherwise fragmented industry.
Point: We believe ATS’ growth momentum will be augmented
by: 1) its success in securing projects as an integrated service
provider and procurement specialist, 2) more cross-selling
opportunities as it taps into the growing business network of KS
Energy, which is its parent company, and 3) its proven growth-byacquisition
strategy to expand product offerings and regional
customer network.
Relevance: We forecast ATS’ net profit to grow 84% y-o-y to a
record S$14.2m in FY07. Its net profit CAGR is expected to be 42%
in our FY07-09 forecast periods. We have a fair value of S$0.84 for
ATS, using 15x FY08 PER. The price upside potential to our fair
value estimate is 66%. As such, we are initiating coverage on ATS
with a BUY rating.
Moving up value chain. ATS’ success as a one-stop procurement specialist
for the oil and gas industry is expected to provide better earnings visibility
by entering into more long-term supply contracts. It has won a S$68m
order to provide integrated procurement and management services from
PRC-based China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC) Oil Base Group Ltd
in early 2007, and a US$14m contract win to procure and supply of marine
equipment & systems in Indonesia in August 2006. These will be
recognised in our FY07-09 forecast periods.
Growth-by-acquisition strategy is workable. This strategy offers ATS the
fastest way to build up its product and networking capabilities to ride on
the booming oil and gas industry. We believe ATS’ growth-by-acquisition
strategy will work as: 1) ATS has successfully made earnings accretive
purchases at low-to-mid single digit forward PER valuation from the pool
of unlisted smaller distributors, and 2) ATS has enabled acquired entities
thrive under its enlarged business umbrella. We estimate the contributions
from entities acquired before 2006 to account for 70-75% of the group’s
PBT in the FY05-06 periods.
Groundworks for growth. We expect ATS’ distribution business to benefit
in the FY07-09 forecast periods through: 1) its initiatives to further
penetrate the Chinese offshore market, 2) the strong rig deliveries in
Singapore and 3) the cross-selling opportunities and business referrals as
part of Mr. Kris Wiluan’s group of companies, which include KS Energy
and Citra Tubindo.
Record earnings year in FY07. We forecast ATS to achieve S$14.2m in
net profit in FY07, representing 84% y-o-y growth. This can be
attributed to the operating leverage effect brought about by ATS’
steady gross profit margins and strong revenue growth. We project ATS’
net profit CAGR to be 42% in our FY07-09 forecast periods.
Starhub - Delivers on promise
Comment on Results Outlook Recommendation
Starhub reported a net profit of S$80.8m,
up 7% y-o-y and 15.4% q-o-q. Excluding
the impact of higher tax rate, the results
are broadly in line with our estimate of
S$83m. Starhub has proposed a 4 cents
interim dividend and raised its full year
dividend guidance to a minimum of 15.5
cents from 14 cents earlier.
Broadband segment was the top
performer in revenues. Revenue grew
10.8% y-o-y with broadband revenue
registering the fastest growth of 15.6%.
Overall service EBITDA margin of 35.3% is
better than 34.4% last year. While there
was an improvement in EBITDA margins in
all the three segments, margins for mobile
business improved significantly by 3 ppt to
43.2% because of (1) focus on higher
margin, pre-paid service that lowered
overall customer acquisition costs (2) efforts
on retention of high-value post-paid
customers with higher minutes of usage
(MoU), even at the cost of market share.
In our view, StarHub is well on track to
surpass its official guidance of “high single
digit revenue growth” and “service EBITDA
margin around 34%” for the full year. We
have slightly trimmed down our earnings
estimates for FY07 and FY08 by 3% each to
factor higher tax rate of 21% up from 18%
assumed earlier.
Expect a stable 3Q07 to be followed by a
strong 4Q07. Pay TV would be the weakest
link in 3Q07 as amortisation of EPL content
cost would kick-in, eroding the pay TV
margins. The projected increase of S$4 in
monthly fee of basic channels would not be
sufficient to cover the higher cost of
content. A hike of S$10 in monthly fee for
sports channels would come into effect in
4Q07, thus helping to sustain the margins.
We suspect, with more advertising revenue,
StarHub would be able to stem the decline
in pay TV margins in the next 6-9 months.
Maintain BUY at our DCF-based (WACC 7%,
terminal growth rate 1%) 12-month target
price of S$3.45.
Unclear picture on National Broadband
Network (NBN). The request for proposal
(RFP) for NBN should be out in 3Q07 and
IDA is expected to award the project
towards the end of 2007. StarHub is one of
the 12 bidders, who have been prequalified
by IDA. It will take another 3-5
years to build the high-speed network and
the operator would need to provide access
to the network at regulated prices to other
service providers. In our view, despite
government subsidy, the project cost would
be substantial with a long break-even
period. Moreover, a completely new
network could introduce excess broadband
capacity in the island, eroding profitability
of all the players. Alternatively existing
networks could be upgraded to provide
high-speed broadband service rather than
building a new network from scratch. IDA’s
decision would be important in this regard.
DBS Group Research . Equity
Starhub reported a net profit of S$80.8m,
up 7% y-o-y and 15.4% q-o-q. Excluding
the impact of higher tax rate, the results
are broadly in line with our estimate of
S$83m. Starhub has proposed a 4 cents
interim dividend and raised its full year
dividend guidance to a minimum of 15.5
cents from 14 cents earlier.
Broadband segment was the top
performer in revenues. Revenue grew
10.8% y-o-y with broadband revenue
registering the fastest growth of 15.6%.
Overall service EBITDA margin of 35.3% is
better than 34.4% last year. While there
was an improvement in EBITDA margins in
all the three segments, margins for mobile
business improved significantly by 3 ppt to
43.2% because of (1) focus on higher
margin, pre-paid service that lowered
overall customer acquisition costs (2) efforts
on retention of high-value post-paid
customers with higher minutes of usage
(MoU), even at the cost of market share.
In our view, StarHub is well on track to
surpass its official guidance of “high single
digit revenue growth” and “service EBITDA
margin around 34%” for the full year. We
have slightly trimmed down our earnings
estimates for FY07 and FY08 by 3% each to
factor higher tax rate of 21% up from 18%
assumed earlier.
Expect a stable 3Q07 to be followed by a
strong 4Q07. Pay TV would be the weakest
link in 3Q07 as amortisation of EPL content
cost would kick-in, eroding the pay TV
margins. The projected increase of S$4 in
monthly fee of basic channels would not be
sufficient to cover the higher cost of
content. A hike of S$10 in monthly fee for
sports channels would come into effect in
4Q07, thus helping to sustain the margins.
We suspect, with more advertising revenue,
StarHub would be able to stem the decline
in pay TV margins in the next 6-9 months.
Maintain BUY at our DCF-based (WACC 7%,
terminal growth rate 1%) 12-month target
price of S$3.45.
Unclear picture on National Broadband
Network (NBN). The request for proposal
(RFP) for NBN should be out in 3Q07 and
IDA is expected to award the project
towards the end of 2007. StarHub is one of
the 12 bidders, who have been prequalified
by IDA. It will take another 3-5
years to build the high-speed network and
the operator would need to provide access
to the network at regulated prices to other
service providers. In our view, despite
government subsidy, the project cost would
be substantial with a long break-even
period. Moreover, a completely new
network could introduce excess broadband
capacity in the island, eroding profitability
of all the players. Alternatively existing
networks could be upgraded to provide
high-speed broadband service rather than
building a new network from scratch. IDA’s
decision would be important in this regard.
DBS Group Research . Equity
Beauty China Holdings Ltd - Secrets of Beauty
Beauty China Holding Ltd (BCH) used to be a brand management company that
owns and manages two cosmetic brands Colour Zone and CharmingLady,
which targeted China’s mass market. Recently, BCH expanded its business to
produce cosmetic products in China, which makes it an integrated cosmetics
player. Colour Zone is targeting trendy women between 18-28 of age, and
CharmingLady is targeting office-going women above 25. Colour Zone
products are now distributed via more than 1275 outlets in all provinces
throughout China. CharmingLady products are available in around 150
department store counters in China.
Niche market player
BCH is well positioned in a niche market, especially for its Colour Zone brand. Colour
Zone targets young girls, who are 18-28, with product price ranging from RMB15 to
109. Usually, we don’t see established brands competing at this relatively low price.
Promising industry
China’s cosmetic industry is a booming industry. In our opinion, China’s cosmetic
industry will benefit from increasing consumer-spending power, booming service
sector, increasing interest in physical appearance, and modernizing retail and
distribution networks.
Strong and stable track record
In the past seven years, BCH has experienced strong and stable growth. The number
of its outlets grew from 450 in year 2003 to 1275 March 2007. It achieved CAGR of
revenue and net profits of 38.4% and 33.4% respectively since year 2000.
Resume coverage with a buy at fair value of S$1.65. We estimate the net earning
for FY07 and FY08 as HKD 168 mln and HKD 211 mln, which translates into a
growth of 24.4% and 26.1% in the next two years. Based on 21x, 18x and 14x PE for
FY06, FY07 and FY08, we arrive at a fully diluted fair value of S$1.65 per share,
which represents an upside of 41% from its previous close.
owns and manages two cosmetic brands Colour Zone and CharmingLady,
which targeted China’s mass market. Recently, BCH expanded its business to
produce cosmetic products in China, which makes it an integrated cosmetics
player. Colour Zone is targeting trendy women between 18-28 of age, and
CharmingLady is targeting office-going women above 25. Colour Zone
products are now distributed via more than 1275 outlets in all provinces
throughout China. CharmingLady products are available in around 150
department store counters in China.
Niche market player
BCH is well positioned in a niche market, especially for its Colour Zone brand. Colour
Zone targets young girls, who are 18-28, with product price ranging from RMB15 to
109. Usually, we don’t see established brands competing at this relatively low price.
Promising industry
China’s cosmetic industry is a booming industry. In our opinion, China’s cosmetic
industry will benefit from increasing consumer-spending power, booming service
sector, increasing interest in physical appearance, and modernizing retail and
distribution networks.
Strong and stable track record
In the past seven years, BCH has experienced strong and stable growth. The number
of its outlets grew from 450 in year 2003 to 1275 March 2007. It achieved CAGR of
revenue and net profits of 38.4% and 33.4% respectively since year 2000.
Resume coverage with a buy at fair value of S$1.65. We estimate the net earning
for FY07 and FY08 as HKD 168 mln and HKD 211 mln, which translates into a
growth of 24.4% and 26.1% in the next two years. Based on 21x, 18x and 14x PE for
FY06, FY07 and FY08, we arrive at a fully diluted fair value of S$1.65 per share,
which represents an upside of 41% from its previous close.
Delong Holdings Ltd: Resilient performance despite rough industry
Resilient performance. Despite government regulatory cooling measures
in the steel industry through sudden tax rebate cuts in May 07, hot-rolled
steel coil (HRC) producer Delong Holdings (DLNG) gave a credible showing
with 1H07 sales rising 37% YoY to S$646.2m. 1H07 net profit rose 26.1%
YoY to S$77m despite incurring its first year of tax expense of 15%. On a
quarterly basis, 2Q07's bottomline came in 8.1% YoY lower than 2Q06 due
to rising raw material costs and slightly lower ASPs as the supply of steel
increased locally.
Outlook for Chinese steel industry. China's macro control policies have
somewhat cooled the red hot construction and machine building industries,
slowing the demand for steel consumption. Despite these measures,
industry watchers anticipate a 4-5% YoY increase in steel consumption in
China for FY07 and even stronger consumption in FY08.
Optimistic of prospects in 2H07. DLNG has reported that its diverse pool
of customers from the booming Bohai Economic Circle continue to display
strong demand for its HRC products despite the rise in supply. Management
has indicated that its HRC ASPs have already stabilised in Jul 07 (just 1
month after government intervention) and is expected to maintain or even
rise incrementally in 2H07 as it focuses on selling better grade HRCs.
Rising raw material costs will also be mitigated when its Phase 3 technical
enhancements are completed.
Waiting for the big acquisition. Management has updated that it is in
deep discussion with 2 potential acquisition targets to incrementally achieve
10m ton/yr capacity by 2010. In our last report, we forecasted that DLNG
will need to acquire about 2m tons/yr to achieve this target. We anticipate
that DLNG will not acquire any plant with capacity larger than 3-4m tons/yr
in its maiden M&A to prevent overwhelming integration issues.
Strong outlook. As capacity reaches 3m tons/yr by year end with the
plant at full utilisation and M&A to increase output, we are confident that
FY07/08 will be strong years. DLNG's exposure to raw material price
increases will also be mitigated when its 2 new furnaces to process pig
and molten iron come online progressively by end FY07. We maintain our
BUY rating and fair value of S$4.56.(
in the steel industry through sudden tax rebate cuts in May 07, hot-rolled
steel coil (HRC) producer Delong Holdings (DLNG) gave a credible showing
with 1H07 sales rising 37% YoY to S$646.2m. 1H07 net profit rose 26.1%
YoY to S$77m despite incurring its first year of tax expense of 15%. On a
quarterly basis, 2Q07's bottomline came in 8.1% YoY lower than 2Q06 due
to rising raw material costs and slightly lower ASPs as the supply of steel
increased locally.
Outlook for Chinese steel industry. China's macro control policies have
somewhat cooled the red hot construction and machine building industries,
slowing the demand for steel consumption. Despite these measures,
industry watchers anticipate a 4-5% YoY increase in steel consumption in
China for FY07 and even stronger consumption in FY08.
Optimistic of prospects in 2H07. DLNG has reported that its diverse pool
of customers from the booming Bohai Economic Circle continue to display
strong demand for its HRC products despite the rise in supply. Management
has indicated that its HRC ASPs have already stabilised in Jul 07 (just 1
month after government intervention) and is expected to maintain or even
rise incrementally in 2H07 as it focuses on selling better grade HRCs.
Rising raw material costs will also be mitigated when its Phase 3 technical
enhancements are completed.
Waiting for the big acquisition. Management has updated that it is in
deep discussion with 2 potential acquisition targets to incrementally achieve
10m ton/yr capacity by 2010. In our last report, we forecasted that DLNG
will need to acquire about 2m tons/yr to achieve this target. We anticipate
that DLNG will not acquire any plant with capacity larger than 3-4m tons/yr
in its maiden M&A to prevent overwhelming integration issues.
Strong outlook. As capacity reaches 3m tons/yr by year end with the
plant at full utilisation and M&A to increase output, we are confident that
FY07/08 will be strong years. DLNG's exposure to raw material price
increases will also be mitigated when its 2 new furnaces to process pig
and molten iron come online progressively by end FY07. We maintain our
BUY rating and fair value of S$4.56.(
Elec & Eltek International - Yield issues may only be partially resolved
Utilisation should have improved, production yield problems may still be around. We expect capacity utilization at Elec and Eltek ("ELEC") to have improved sequentially from 84% in 1Q07 to about 90% in 2Q07. Revenue in the June quarter should therefore record sequential growth from US$123.2m in 1Q07. However, sub-optimal production yield at ELEC’s Kaiping plant that was highlighted in our previous report may still be an issue in 2Q07.
2Q07 net profit may fall short of our forecast. We expect 2Q07 revenue to be in-line with our forecast of US$132.2m. Net profit in the second quarter may fall short of our estimate of US$10.4m, as gross margins may be lower than our 18% assumption due to yield issues mentioned above. In fact, gross margin could still be in the 15% to 15.5% range (15.2% in 1Q07), in which case 2Q07 net profit would only be approximately US$7.3m compared to US$6.6m in 1Q07. The current production hiccup at Kaiping is temporary. We expect full resolution by end 3Q07, which is later than what we had anticipated earlier. Therefore, full-year gross margins may be lower than our earlier estimate of 17.9% (probably closer to 16.5%), and net profit should also decline more than our earlier forecast of -25% YoY to US$43.3m. We expect ELEC to pay out 60% of its FY07 net earnings, or 14.5 USD cents per share, for a dividend yield of 7%. Actual payout should be slightly lower as we are likely to revise downwards FY07 EPS estimates after 2Q07 results have been released sometime in mid-August.
Undervalued but still a Hold. We continue to believe that ELEC is well positioned to compete in the PCB industry given its size, experience and access to its parent’s (KingBoard) network of resources. As mentioned previously, we also think FY07 net profit will not be reflective of ELEC’s earnings potential. Given its double-digit ROE and nature of business, ELEC should be worth between 1.5-2.0x NTA, i.e. US$2.78-3.70, per share. We will keep our current fair value per share of US$3.32 as it falls within this range. Although ELEC has an upside potential of 59.6%, and is currently trading at undemanding 7.3x TTM EPS, 8.6x FY07E EPS, and P/NTA of 1.1x, we will maintain our HOLD recommendation as we are still unable to find any strong share price catalyst in the next six-to-nine months. Longer-term investors who are attracted by its yield and undervaluation may add or initiate a new position, as we doubt the stock price will go down much further from current levels. We guess downside is probably at the US$1.90 level, or -8.7%, giving the stock an attractive risk/reward for the longer-term investor.
2Q07 net profit may fall short of our forecast. We expect 2Q07 revenue to be in-line with our forecast of US$132.2m. Net profit in the second quarter may fall short of our estimate of US$10.4m, as gross margins may be lower than our 18% assumption due to yield issues mentioned above. In fact, gross margin could still be in the 15% to 15.5% range (15.2% in 1Q07), in which case 2Q07 net profit would only be approximately US$7.3m compared to US$6.6m in 1Q07. The current production hiccup at Kaiping is temporary. We expect full resolution by end 3Q07, which is later than what we had anticipated earlier. Therefore, full-year gross margins may be lower than our earlier estimate of 17.9% (probably closer to 16.5%), and net profit should also decline more than our earlier forecast of -25% YoY to US$43.3m. We expect ELEC to pay out 60% of its FY07 net earnings, or 14.5 USD cents per share, for a dividend yield of 7%. Actual payout should be slightly lower as we are likely to revise downwards FY07 EPS estimates after 2Q07 results have been released sometime in mid-August.
Undervalued but still a Hold. We continue to believe that ELEC is well positioned to compete in the PCB industry given its size, experience and access to its parent’s (KingBoard) network of resources. As mentioned previously, we also think FY07 net profit will not be reflective of ELEC’s earnings potential. Given its double-digit ROE and nature of business, ELEC should be worth between 1.5-2.0x NTA, i.e. US$2.78-3.70, per share. We will keep our current fair value per share of US$3.32 as it falls within this range. Although ELEC has an upside potential of 59.6%, and is currently trading at undemanding 7.3x TTM EPS, 8.6x FY07E EPS, and P/NTA of 1.1x, we will maintain our HOLD recommendation as we are still unable to find any strong share price catalyst in the next six-to-nine months. Longer-term investors who are attracted by its yield and undervaluation may add or initiate a new position, as we doubt the stock price will go down much further from current levels. We guess downside is probably at the US$1.90 level, or -8.7%, giving the stock an attractive risk/reward for the longer-term investor.
ECS Holdings - Drawing interests from strategic investors
Comment on Results Outlook Recommendation
Net profit of S$6.2m was up 18% y-o-y and
in line with our estimate of S$6.1m.
Revenue growth was very strong at 23%
due to more than 100% growth in
notebook sales mainly from Malaysia and
China.
Earnings growth of 18% was lower than
revenue growth of 23% due to (1) lower
margins in notebooks business (2) higher
minority interest (MI) of S$0.8m up 121% yo-
y from its 60%-owned subsidiary in
Malaysia. We are a bit concerned over
lower margins and don’t think that bigger
volume can be a substitute for better
margins.
As revenue ramp is quite strong, cash flow
from operations for the quarter was
negative at S$14m. Although, there is a
significant reduction in working capital days
to 42.4 days from 52.5 days in 2Q06, more
needs to be done in order to turn operating
cash flow positive.
We maintain our earnings estimates and
think that the company can meet our
numbers. The growth in the coming
quarters will be underpinned by:
1) Stronger demand for notebooks
compared to desktops with direct
selling model of companies like
HP and Apple performing better
than indirect selling model of
Dell, benefiting distributors like
ECS.
2) Malaysia continues to register
strong growth in distribution
business with China keeping the
pace in distribution and
enterprise business.
3) ECS is looking forward to enter
India and Vietnam in FY07.
Net profit of S$6.2m was up 18% y-o-y and
in line with our estimate of S$6.1m.
Revenue growth was very strong at 23%
due to more than 100% growth in
notebook sales mainly from Malaysia and
China.
Earnings growth of 18% was lower than
revenue growth of 23% due to (1) lower
margins in notebooks business (2) higher
minority interest (MI) of S$0.8m up 121% yo-
y from its 60%-owned subsidiary in
Malaysia. We are a bit concerned over
lower margins and don’t think that bigger
volume can be a substitute for better
margins.
As revenue ramp is quite strong, cash flow
from operations for the quarter was
negative at S$14m. Although, there is a
significant reduction in working capital days
to 42.4 days from 52.5 days in 2Q06, more
needs to be done in order to turn operating
cash flow positive.
We maintain our earnings estimates and
think that the company can meet our
numbers. The growth in the coming
quarters will be underpinned by:
1) Stronger demand for notebooks
compared to desktops with direct
selling model of companies like
HP and Apple performing better
than indirect selling model of
Dell, benefiting distributors like
ECS.
2) Malaysia continues to register
strong growth in distribution
business with China keeping the
pace in distribution and
enterprise business.
3) ECS is looking forward to enter
India and Vietnam in FY07.
SMRT - Applies to Public Transport Council for fare adjustment
SMRT submitted its application for fare adjustment to the Public Transport
Council (PTC) on 1 Aug 07.
SMRT continues to face cost pressures, with electricity cost increasing 26.3%
to S$39.8m, and a 3.8% rise in cost of diesel to S$35.5m, both for FY07. In
addition, SMRT annual earnings would be adversely affected by some S$11m
from the 2 ppt increase in GST and 1.5 ppt increase in employers’ CPF
contribution.
The PTC fare adjustment formula allows a maximum 1.8% fare hike this year.
We have assumed a fare hike of 1.5% for MRT and 2.0% for buses for FY08 in
our earnings model, which is consistent with the PTC formula. Our earnings
forecast remain unchanged.
Separately, SMRT announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, SMRT
Engineering, will be appointed the operator of The Palm Monorail, the first
monorail to be constructed in the Middle East. This monorail is a Hitachi-based
system with a 5.45km fully elevated, double-tracked system with 4 stations.
Construction work is expected to be completed by Nov 08. Though this project
is expected to have only a small impact on SMRT financials, it will help SMRT
in its future bid to run other rail systems.
Our target price for SMRT is S$2.10. This comprises the following: a) S$1.55
for existing operations (which has factored in cannibalisation from the 2010
commencement of Circle Line operation), b) S$0.17 for the Circle Line, and c)
S$0.38 value enhancement assuming the land transport review will lead to one
operator running all rail and bus operations in Singapore. If the land transport
review leads to a model of one-rail operator and one-bus operator, then S$1.91
would be a fairer value. While the market continues to speculate on the
recommendations of the land transport review, we believe the bullish sentiment
could bring SMRT’s share price closer to our more optimistic valuation.
Council (PTC) on 1 Aug 07.
SMRT continues to face cost pressures, with electricity cost increasing 26.3%
to S$39.8m, and a 3.8% rise in cost of diesel to S$35.5m, both for FY07. In
addition, SMRT annual earnings would be adversely affected by some S$11m
from the 2 ppt increase in GST and 1.5 ppt increase in employers’ CPF
contribution.
The PTC fare adjustment formula allows a maximum 1.8% fare hike this year.
We have assumed a fare hike of 1.5% for MRT and 2.0% for buses for FY08 in
our earnings model, which is consistent with the PTC formula. Our earnings
forecast remain unchanged.
Separately, SMRT announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, SMRT
Engineering, will be appointed the operator of The Palm Monorail, the first
monorail to be constructed in the Middle East. This monorail is a Hitachi-based
system with a 5.45km fully elevated, double-tracked system with 4 stations.
Construction work is expected to be completed by Nov 08. Though this project
is expected to have only a small impact on SMRT financials, it will help SMRT
in its future bid to run other rail systems.
Our target price for SMRT is S$2.10. This comprises the following: a) S$1.55
for existing operations (which has factored in cannibalisation from the 2010
commencement of Circle Line operation), b) S$0.17 for the Circle Line, and c)
S$0.38 value enhancement assuming the land transport review will lead to one
operator running all rail and bus operations in Singapore. If the land transport
review leads to a model of one-rail operator and one-bus operator, then S$1.91
would be a fairer value. While the market continues to speculate on the
recommendations of the land transport review, we believe the bullish sentiment
could bring SMRT’s share price closer to our more optimistic valuation.
Jun-07 stats: Loan growth back in action
System loan growth repeated the Mar-07 momentum at
10.3% y-o-y and 3.8% q-o-q in Jun-07 after a brief slowdown in
May-07 (8.7% y-o-y and 2.7% q-o-q).
Consumer loans, particularly housing loans, grew at its
strongest since Aug-05 at 6.9% y-o-y and 3.2% q-o-q in Jun-07.
Business loans grew at 14.5% y-o-y and 4.9% q-o-q after a
breather in May-07. Construction loans also improved y-o-y at
20.8%, but dipped on a q-o-q basis at 8.2% (May-07: 19.0% y-o-y
and 8.8% q-o-q).
Deposits continued the momentum at 26% y-o-y and 5.2% qo-
q with significantly higher growth from demand and savings
deposits (low cost deposit). This would keep cost of funds for
banks low resulting in healthy NIMs. Meanwhile LD ratio was
higher at 68.3% in Jun-07.
Loans take off. The system’s domestic loans repeated its momentum at
10.3% y-o-y and 3.8% q-o-q in Jun-07 after a brief pause in May-07
(8.7% y-o-y and 2.7% q-o-q). Consumer loans grew their strongest since
mid-05, particularly housing loans, which is at its peak. Business loans
continued to dominate the system’s growth at 14.5% y-o-y and 4.9% qo-
q in Jun-07 after a breather in May-07.
Housing loans a winner. Housing loans grew their strongest since Aug-
05 at 6.9% y-o-y and 3.2% q-o-q in Jun-07. It appears quite evident the
influx of private residential activities is thriving - from bullish home sales
and expectations of en-bloc sales. We expect the momentum to
continue into 2H07. We believe all three domestic banks would benefit
but we expect UOB to show stronger housing loans growth.
Construction loans build up. Construction loans growth revived in Jun-
07 at 20.8% y-o-y, but dipped to 8.2% on a q-o-q basis (May-07: 19.0%
y-o-y and 8.8% q-o-q). We still think they will accelerate in view of
increased construction demand and hence flow through to the volume
of construction loans. Based on the latest financials available,
construction loan exposure (bank level to reflect domestic loans) ranks
DBS, OCBC and UOB in descending order (in terms of absolute value).
Higher low cost deposit growth. We note demand and savings deposits
outshined fixed deposit growth and we believe this could be a
deliberate strategy carried out by banks to offset the effects of lower
SIBOR to maintain NIMs. Despite flattish interest spreads, we believe
lower funding costs coupled with volume of loan growth would seal
healthy NIMs for banks.
Maintain Overweight. We believe there’s potential for Singapore banks
to outperform the market, with stronger-than-expected loan growth in
2H07. While ROEs may remain flat, we expect overall earnings growth of
18% y-o-y. Our top sector pick is UOB (Buy, TP $27.50) for better growth
and ROE prospects. We also have a Buy rating for OCBC with target
price of $10.20. The sector has been a laggard and we would
recommend it as a late cycle proxy and alternative exposure to the
property boom. Maintain Overweight.
10.3% y-o-y and 3.8% q-o-q in Jun-07 after a brief slowdown in
May-07 (8.7% y-o-y and 2.7% q-o-q).
Consumer loans, particularly housing loans, grew at its
strongest since Aug-05 at 6.9% y-o-y and 3.2% q-o-q in Jun-07.
Business loans grew at 14.5% y-o-y and 4.9% q-o-q after a
breather in May-07. Construction loans also improved y-o-y at
20.8%, but dipped on a q-o-q basis at 8.2% (May-07: 19.0% y-o-y
and 8.8% q-o-q).
Deposits continued the momentum at 26% y-o-y and 5.2% qo-
q with significantly higher growth from demand and savings
deposits (low cost deposit). This would keep cost of funds for
banks low resulting in healthy NIMs. Meanwhile LD ratio was
higher at 68.3% in Jun-07.
Loans take off. The system’s domestic loans repeated its momentum at
10.3% y-o-y and 3.8% q-o-q in Jun-07 after a brief pause in May-07
(8.7% y-o-y and 2.7% q-o-q). Consumer loans grew their strongest since
mid-05, particularly housing loans, which is at its peak. Business loans
continued to dominate the system’s growth at 14.5% y-o-y and 4.9% qo-
q in Jun-07 after a breather in May-07.
Housing loans a winner. Housing loans grew their strongest since Aug-
05 at 6.9% y-o-y and 3.2% q-o-q in Jun-07. It appears quite evident the
influx of private residential activities is thriving - from bullish home sales
and expectations of en-bloc sales. We expect the momentum to
continue into 2H07. We believe all three domestic banks would benefit
but we expect UOB to show stronger housing loans growth.
Construction loans build up. Construction loans growth revived in Jun-
07 at 20.8% y-o-y, but dipped to 8.2% on a q-o-q basis (May-07: 19.0%
y-o-y and 8.8% q-o-q). We still think they will accelerate in view of
increased construction demand and hence flow through to the volume
of construction loans. Based on the latest financials available,
construction loan exposure (bank level to reflect domestic loans) ranks
DBS, OCBC and UOB in descending order (in terms of absolute value).
Higher low cost deposit growth. We note demand and savings deposits
outshined fixed deposit growth and we believe this could be a
deliberate strategy carried out by banks to offset the effects of lower
SIBOR to maintain NIMs. Despite flattish interest spreads, we believe
lower funding costs coupled with volume of loan growth would seal
healthy NIMs for banks.
Maintain Overweight. We believe there’s potential for Singapore banks
to outperform the market, with stronger-than-expected loan growth in
2H07. While ROEs may remain flat, we expect overall earnings growth of
18% y-o-y. Our top sector pick is UOB (Buy, TP $27.50) for better growth
and ROE prospects. We also have a Buy rating for OCBC with target
price of $10.20. The sector has been a laggard and we would
recommend it as a late cycle proxy and alternative exposure to the
property boom. Maintain Overweight.
UOL Group Limited: Strong growth but mainly due to revaluation gains
Strong earnings, but due to revaluation gains. UOL Group Limited
(UOL) reported a good set of 2Q07 results with revenue improving 24% YoY
to S$201.6. However, net profit growth for the quarter was much stronger,
rising over 421% YoY to S$286.3m. The much stronger bottom-line
performance was mainly due to revaluation surplus from the revaluation of
its investment properties. The total revaluation gain recognized was
S$274.4m. However, UOL did not provide the attributable value of this surplus
to the group, although we know that about S$5.5m came from Hotel Plaza
and assuming that 80% of the gain was attributed to UOL, the net bottomline
gain from revaluation surplus would be about S$215m. Excluding the
revaluation gains, UOL's PATMI would be about S$71.3m or growth of about
30% YoY. This is broadly in line with top-line growth. The key drivers of the
earnings improvement came from residential projects, dividend income and
to a lesser from its Hotel operation.
Development projects did well. In 2Q07, UOL recognized pre-sold
projects from Southbank, Newton Suite, Pavilion 11, The Regency and
Regency Suites. The good performance in this segment was reflected in
this division's revenue growth of 27% YoY to S$61.0m.
Hotel doing fine. UOL's hotel subsidiary, Hotel Plaza, had a more moderate
quarter, with revenue falling 1% YoY, but with PATMI rising over 100% YoY.
Revenue suffered mainly due to the sale of its Singapore Hotel Grand Plaza
while PATMI benefited from lower interest expenses as well as revaluation
surplus of about S$5.5m.
Hotel Negara redevelopment is now possible. Over the last 6 months,
UOL has bought two en-bloc redevelopment projects, i.e. Spottiswoode
Park (off Keppel Road) and a site at Tagore Avenue. The two freehold sites
cost UOL about S$335m collectively, and we estimate the breakeven at
S$980 psf and S$643 psf, respectively. Furthermore, with the recent high
transaction costs at Orchard Turn, we see the redevelopment of Hotel Negara
as back on track.
Maintain HOLD. Since our downgrade report dated 15 June, UOL peaked
at S$6.00 but has since corrected to the last traded price of S$5.25. Our
fair value stands at S$5.48, and as the upside is marginal, we see no
reason to upgrade our rating presently. We maintain our HOLD rating on
UOL.
(UOL) reported a good set of 2Q07 results with revenue improving 24% YoY
to S$201.6. However, net profit growth for the quarter was much stronger,
rising over 421% YoY to S$286.3m. The much stronger bottom-line
performance was mainly due to revaluation surplus from the revaluation of
its investment properties. The total revaluation gain recognized was
S$274.4m. However, UOL did not provide the attributable value of this surplus
to the group, although we know that about S$5.5m came from Hotel Plaza
and assuming that 80% of the gain was attributed to UOL, the net bottomline
gain from revaluation surplus would be about S$215m. Excluding the
revaluation gains, UOL's PATMI would be about S$71.3m or growth of about
30% YoY. This is broadly in line with top-line growth. The key drivers of the
earnings improvement came from residential projects, dividend income and
to a lesser from its Hotel operation.
Development projects did well. In 2Q07, UOL recognized pre-sold
projects from Southbank, Newton Suite, Pavilion 11, The Regency and
Regency Suites. The good performance in this segment was reflected in
this division's revenue growth of 27% YoY to S$61.0m.
Hotel doing fine. UOL's hotel subsidiary, Hotel Plaza, had a more moderate
quarter, with revenue falling 1% YoY, but with PATMI rising over 100% YoY.
Revenue suffered mainly due to the sale of its Singapore Hotel Grand Plaza
while PATMI benefited from lower interest expenses as well as revaluation
surplus of about S$5.5m.
Hotel Negara redevelopment is now possible. Over the last 6 months,
UOL has bought two en-bloc redevelopment projects, i.e. Spottiswoode
Park (off Keppel Road) and a site at Tagore Avenue. The two freehold sites
cost UOL about S$335m collectively, and we estimate the breakeven at
S$980 psf and S$643 psf, respectively. Furthermore, with the recent high
transaction costs at Orchard Turn, we see the redevelopment of Hotel Negara
as back on track.
Maintain HOLD. Since our downgrade report dated 15 June, UOL peaked
at S$6.00 but has since corrected to the last traded price of S$5.25. Our
fair value stands at S$5.48, and as the upside is marginal, we see no
reason to upgrade our rating presently. We maintain our HOLD rating on
UOL.
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