SG:Sticking with Singapore ’s Stalwarts- STE and SPH
Summary: With the see-saw vacillation of the market expected over the next 1-3 quarters, following the domino effect from the subprime fallout, there is a de-rating of the market due to slowing growth. The increased risk premium will mean investors are less willing to pay higher multiples for uncertain growth stories. Investors are shifting into defensive stocks with high dividends, high earnings visibility and cash flow stability. We like tried-and-proven Singapore stalwarts such as ST Engineering and SPH as these have strong cash flow and an anticipated high dividend yield of >5% to ride out the choppy market. STE has historically returned all of its net profits to shareholders while SPH has historically paid out all of its recurring earnings from its print business. We upgrade our call to BUY as valuations now look attractive for STE (fair value: S$3.92) and maintain our BUY call for SPH (fair value: S$4.87).
Olam- preferential share offering
Olam has announced that it will be undertaking a non-renounceable, non-transferable preferential offering of 155.6m new shares on the basis of one new share for every ten existing ordinary shares in the capital of Olam held on 8 April 2008 (Books closure date). The preferential offering issue price is S$1.97.
The net proceeds of the offering are expected to be approximately S$302.6m (if fully subscribed). Olam intends to use the proceeds to finance investments, joint ventures, mergers and acquisitions, discharge, reduce or retire certain bank borrowings and for general working capital and corporate purposes.
In connection with and to demonstrate support for the preferential offering, Kewalram Singapore Limited (KSL) and Sunny George Verghese have jointly and severally irrevocably undertaken to the company not to transfer, dispose of or otherwise reduce any of their respective interests between now and the books closure date and to subscribe and pay in full for such number of new shares representing 100% of their new share entitlements under the preferential offering.
KSL has also irrevocably and unconditionally undertaken to apply by way of excess application for the maximum number of additional new shares that, when aggregated with its current shareholdings and its entitlements under the preferential offering will not exceed such number of share representing not more than 29.99% of t he resultant enlarged issued share capital of Olam.
Sunny George Verghese, Olam's CEO and Managing director who currently owns 5.17% of Olam has also irrevocably and unconditionally undertaken to apply by way of excess application for a maximum number of 18.343m new shares, that when aggregated with his current shareholdings and entitlements under the preferential offering, amounts to 26.395m new shares.
Assuming that only the undertaking shareholders subscribe, the aggregate number of new shares which they will subscribe for will be 110.095m new shares, representing approximately 70.7% of the total number of new shares offered to entitled shareholders
We currently have a HOLD recommendation on Olam with a target price of S$2.88. Our target price and earnings forecasts are currently under review.
The net proceeds of the offering are expected to be approximately S$302.6m (if fully subscribed). Olam intends to use the proceeds to finance investments, joint ventures, mergers and acquisitions, discharge, reduce or retire certain bank borrowings and for general working capital and corporate purposes.
In connection with and to demonstrate support for the preferential offering, Kewalram Singapore Limited (KSL) and Sunny George Verghese have jointly and severally irrevocably undertaken to the company not to transfer, dispose of or otherwise reduce any of their respective interests between now and the books closure date and to subscribe and pay in full for such number of new shares representing 100% of their new share entitlements under the preferential offering.
KSL has also irrevocably and unconditionally undertaken to apply by way of excess application for the maximum number of additional new shares that, when aggregated with its current shareholdings and its entitlements under the preferential offering will not exceed such number of share representing not more than 29.99% of t he resultant enlarged issued share capital of Olam.
Sunny George Verghese, Olam's CEO and Managing director who currently owns 5.17% of Olam has also irrevocably and unconditionally undertaken to apply by way of excess application for a maximum number of 18.343m new shares, that when aggregated with his current shareholdings and entitlements under the preferential offering, amounts to 26.395m new shares.
Assuming that only the undertaking shareholders subscribe, the aggregate number of new shares which they will subscribe for will be 110.095m new shares, representing approximately 70.7% of the total number of new shares offered to entitled shareholders
We currently have a HOLD recommendation on Olam with a target price of S$2.88. Our target price and earnings forecasts are currently under review.
Li Heng Chemical Fibre Technologies Limited ("LHCF")
We recently visited LHCF's plant and witnessed the production of its high-end nylon yarn products at Jinfeng and Binhai Industrial zone, PRC. LHCF, based in PRC, is principally engaged in the manufacture and sale of high-end nylon yarn products. Its two production facilities in Changle City, Fujian Province are strategically located amongst clusters of textile and garment manufacturing industries and related supporting service industries.
The Group's revenue grew at CAGR of 54% from FY04~06 and achieved gross profit margin of above 34%.
Sales and GPM Breakdown
Breakdown (%) FY05 FY06 1H07
Revenue RMB 'm % RMB 'm % RMB 'm %
HOY/POY 978.7 100.0 1,540.1 90.8 1,100.3 76.2
FDY - 0.0 55.5 3.3 161.4 11.2
DTY - 0.0 101.0 6.0 182.4 12.6
Total 978.7 100.0 1,696.6 100 1,444.1 100
GPM (%) % % %
HOY/POY 34.1 34.8 33.0
FDY - 38.4 38.2
DTY - 36.9 39.9
Total 34.1 35.0 34.4
Source: Prospectus
Production Capacity and Utilization – LHCF's maximum annual capacity increased 81% to 167,000 mt in 1Q08 from 92,400 mt in FY07. The group intends to further increase its capacity to 257,000 mt by 3Q09. The Group consistently achieved utilization rate of above 90% for FY04~06, as shown in the table below.
We understand from management that LHCF supplies between 20~50% of the each customer's demand and with each customer accounting for less than 5% of the Group's total revenue, we believe LHCF will be able to maintain a reasonably high utilization rate in FY08~09.
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
Maximum Annual Capacity (mt) 20,300 40,500 92,400 92,400 167,000 257,000
Utilization Rate (%) 91.2 93.7 95.8 - - -
Source: Prospectus
Upward integration - Polyamide Chip Plant with capacity of 80,000 mt by 3Q09. The Group plans to construct a polyamide chip plant, an essential feedstock for the production of nylon yarn, to reduce reliance on external suppliers of polyamide chips. We believe this will allow LHCF to have better control over the quality of polyamide chips used for the production of LHCF's nylon yarn products, leading to overall costs efficiency as well as better quality of LHCF nylon yarn products.
Valuation – LHCF, intends to pay dividend of at least 20% out of FY08~09 net profits, has the largest market capitalization and production capacity, which we believe LHCF should command a premium over its peers. We do not have a rating for this counter.
The Group's revenue grew at CAGR of 54% from FY04~06 and achieved gross profit margin of above 34%.
Sales and GPM Breakdown
Breakdown (%) FY05 FY06 1H07
Revenue RMB 'm % RMB 'm % RMB 'm %
HOY/POY 978.7 100.0 1,540.1 90.8 1,100.3 76.2
FDY - 0.0 55.5 3.3 161.4 11.2
DTY - 0.0 101.0 6.0 182.4 12.6
Total 978.7 100.0 1,696.6 100 1,444.1 100
GPM (%) % % %
HOY/POY 34.1 34.8 33.0
FDY - 38.4 38.2
DTY - 36.9 39.9
Total 34.1 35.0 34.4
Source: Prospectus
Production Capacity and Utilization – LHCF's maximum annual capacity increased 81% to 167,000 mt in 1Q08 from 92,400 mt in FY07. The group intends to further increase its capacity to 257,000 mt by 3Q09. The Group consistently achieved utilization rate of above 90% for FY04~06, as shown in the table below.
We understand from management that LHCF supplies between 20~50% of the each customer's demand and with each customer accounting for less than 5% of the Group's total revenue, we believe LHCF will be able to maintain a reasonably high utilization rate in FY08~09.
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E
Maximum Annual Capacity (mt) 20,300 40,500 92,400 92,400 167,000 257,000
Utilization Rate (%) 91.2 93.7 95.8 - - -
Source: Prospectus
Upward integration - Polyamide Chip Plant with capacity of 80,000 mt by 3Q09. The Group plans to construct a polyamide chip plant, an essential feedstock for the production of nylon yarn, to reduce reliance on external suppliers of polyamide chips. We believe this will allow LHCF to have better control over the quality of polyamide chips used for the production of LHCF's nylon yarn products, leading to overall costs efficiency as well as better quality of LHCF nylon yarn products.
Valuation – LHCF, intends to pay dividend of at least 20% out of FY08~09 net profits, has the largest market capitalization and production capacity, which we believe LHCF should command a premium over its peers. We do not have a rating for this counter.
Swiber Holdings (S$2.63) - Extends visibility
Swiber has raised S$100m from the domestic bond market. We believe the
funds could be used to finance part of the
equipment for its new deepwater drilling barge. A recent contract worth
a total of US$250m from CUEL Thailand for
offshore installation and engineering work has increased Swiber's
earnings visibility till 2013 and bringing its
order book to about US$760m, compared to only US$176m at end-1Q07. With
plans to expand its fleet to six vessels by
end-08, we believe Swiber could be grooming its 30% Indonesian-based
associate, OBT Holdings to tap into the strong
coal transhipment sector. Maintain Outperform. Our earnings estimates
remained intact and our target price of S$5.05
is still based on 15x CY09 earnings on the back of 59% 3-year CAGR
through to 2010.
Quick Takes
* Olam International (S$2.07) - Preferential offering at
S$1.97 per share
* Land Transport Sector - Cash for scrapping cars being
studied
News of the Day
* MAS likely to retain $ policy, or tighten it
* US Treasury to call for broad overhaul of financial
regulation
* Singapore sees small flow of QDII funds
* Swissport finds the going tough at Changi
* Cosco may quote contracts in yuan
* K-Reit may raise more funds after its rights issue
* Cash exit offer for ICIL 'not reasonable': Omega
Technical Trading Ideas
* STI Weekly Outlook, China Hongxing Sports and C&G Industrial
Holdings
funds could be used to finance part of the
equipment for its new deepwater drilling barge. A recent contract worth
a total of US$250m from CUEL Thailand for
offshore installation and engineering work has increased Swiber's
earnings visibility till 2013 and bringing its
order book to about US$760m, compared to only US$176m at end-1Q07. With
plans to expand its fleet to six vessels by
end-08, we believe Swiber could be grooming its 30% Indonesian-based
associate, OBT Holdings to tap into the strong
coal transhipment sector. Maintain Outperform. Our earnings estimates
remained intact and our target price of S$5.05
is still based on 15x CY09 earnings on the back of 59% 3-year CAGR
through to 2010.
Quick Takes
* Olam International (S$2.07) - Preferential offering at
S$1.97 per share
* Land Transport Sector - Cash for scrapping cars being
studied
News of the Day
* MAS likely to retain $ policy, or tighten it
* US Treasury to call for broad overhaul of financial
regulation
* Singapore sees small flow of QDII funds
* Swissport finds the going tough at Changi
* Cosco may quote contracts in yuan
* K-Reit may raise more funds after its rights issue
* Cash exit offer for ICIL 'not reasonable': Omega
Technical Trading Ideas
* STI Weekly Outlook, China Hongxing Sports and C&G Industrial
Holdings
Singapore Banking Sector
The Monthly statistics bulletin released by the Monetary Authority of Singapore revealed the loan and deposit numbers ending February 2007.
‧ Total loans amounted to S$241.8 billion (+21.9% YoY, +2.1% MoM)
‧ Manufacturing loans grew to S$11.1 billion (+3.1% YoY, +6.7% MoM)
‧ Construction loans boosted to S$41.0 billion (+48.7% YoY, +4.3% MoM)
‧ Housing loans increased to S$74.0 billion (+16.0% YoY, +0.2% MoM)
‧ Deposit from non-bank customers swelled to S$323.7 billion (+14.0% YoY, +2.6% MoM). LDR ratio increased to 74.7%
‧ Total loans amounted to S$241.8 billion (+21.9% YoY, +2.1% MoM)
‧ Manufacturing loans grew to S$11.1 billion (+3.1% YoY, +6.7% MoM)
‧ Construction loans boosted to S$41.0 billion (+48.7% YoY, +4.3% MoM)
‧ Housing loans increased to S$74.0 billion (+16.0% YoY, +0.2% MoM)
‧ Deposit from non-bank customers swelled to S$323.7 billion (+14.0% YoY, +2.6% MoM). LDR ratio increased to 74.7%
Tee International: Order book explosion
Summary: TEE recently announced a very large contract win from the Marina Bay Sands Integrated Resorts Development for electrical installation for the North and South Podiums worth S$109m, bringing TEE's total order book to approximately S$182m. As a pre-qualified contractor for this project, TEE has an edge over the other contenders for future contract works with Sands. TEE intends to launch the Rambai Road development on 12 April 08 and has indicated they plan to hold off all further launches till 2H08 based on the developments in the local property market. TEE has proposed a bonus issue of 3 bonus shares for every 20 shares together with a proposed warrants issue of 1 warrant for every 5 shares held. However, management has not fixed a date for book closure. We are raising our net profit projection for FY08 to S$4.2m taking into account the new contact win from Marina Bay Sands. The bulk of the earnings from the new contract would come in during FY09. We are also raising our fair value estimate from S$0.51 to S$0.525 based on blended 13x earnings. This presents an estimated 13% upside from current price, and hence we are upgrading TEE to a BUY. (Ritesh Menon)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
Soilbuild Group Holdings Ltd: Building up for more growth
Summary: Soilbuild Group Holdings Ltd (Soilbuild) put up a record performance in FY07, with earnings surging 634% to S$52.4m. The good performance was partly due to its choice of target market. By targeting the premium residential market, Soilbuild lifted its gross profit margin by 20.6ppt to 33.1% in FY07. We remain positive on this market segment, and believe that the relatively lower price elasticity of the buyers in this segment should allow Soilbuild to pass on its rising construction costs. Soilbuild's pipeline of pre-sold projects amounted to approximately S$511m, to be recognised in FY08 and FY09. This suggests that its FY08 sales could more than double that of FY07 even without factoring in revenues from its business space and new projects. Management is building up its recurring income stream from rental of business spaces, and is confident that demand for business space properties will be buoyed by strong foreign investment commitments into Singapore. We do not have a rating on the stock. (Lee Wen Ching)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
Eu Yan Sang International Ltd: Another step towards quality assurance
Summary: Eu Yan Sang International Ltd (EYS), together with Agrifood Technologies, an arm of the Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority (AVA) of Singapore, have come together to introduce a certification standard for Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) herbs. The purpose of this certification is for consumers to obtain independently-verified assurance of the quality of herbs that they are purchasing. While this latest development will not have a material financial impact on EYS, the company will enjoy intangible benefits in the form of brand awareness, and will be able to justify any price increments it may be planning. It may also capture a larger market share as consumers turn to safer and better quality products in light of food-safety concerns. We maintain our HOLD rating on EYS, with a fair value estimate of S$0.535. (Lee Wen Ching)
NEWS HEADLINES
- Keppel Corp has won a S$74.8m turnkey contract to design and build a waste-to-energy cogeneration plant for a paper-mill in Sweden.
- Banyan Tree hopes to close a fund aimed at raising up to US$400m for investments in Indochina by the end of this year.
- Neptune Orient Lines carried 10% more containers on its ships in the four weeks to March 7 compared with the same period a year ago.
- The past three months have seen S$105b or 13.2% wiped off the stock market value of Singapore-listed companies.
- The S$162.8m collective sale of Makeway View in the Newton area has been rescinded due to higher than expected development charges.
- Total loans made by Singapore banks hit S$241.8b at the end of February, up 21.9% YoY – the fastest pace of expansion since May 1995.
- The Urban Redevelopment Authority has put a 1.77ha hotel site in Balestier Road on the market.
- Vega Co, a wholly-owned subsidiary of The HSBC Private Equity Fund 6, is offering to buy Sing Lun Holdings for S$119.6m or S$0.46 per share. Its stake is now 71.32%.
- Pokka Corp posted a more than seven-fold jump in full-year net profit to S$7m thanks to better profit margins and double-digit revenue growth.
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
Soilbuild Group Holdings Ltd: Building up for more growth
Summary: Soilbuild Group Holdings Ltd (Soilbuild) put up a record performance in FY07, with earnings surging 634% to S$52.4m. The good performance was partly due to its choice of target market. By targeting the premium residential market, Soilbuild lifted its gross profit margin by 20.6ppt to 33.1% in FY07. We remain positive on this market segment, and believe that the relatively lower price elasticity of the buyers in this segment should allow Soilbuild to pass on its rising construction costs. Soilbuild's pipeline of pre-sold projects amounted to approximately S$511m, to be recognised in FY08 and FY09. This suggests that its FY08 sales could more than double that of FY07 even without factoring in revenues from its business space and new projects. Management is building up its recurring income stream from rental of business spaces, and is confident that demand for business space properties will be buoyed by strong foreign investment commitments into Singapore. We do not have a rating on the stock. (Lee Wen Ching)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
Eu Yan Sang International Ltd: Another step towards quality assurance
Summary: Eu Yan Sang International Ltd (EYS), together with Agrifood Technologies, an arm of the Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority (AVA) of Singapore, have come together to introduce a certification standard for Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) herbs. The purpose of this certification is for consumers to obtain independently-verified assurance of the quality of herbs that they are purchasing. While this latest development will not have a material financial impact on EYS, the company will enjoy intangible benefits in the form of brand awareness, and will be able to justify any price increments it may be planning. It may also capture a larger market share as consumers turn to safer and better quality products in light of food-safety concerns. We maintain our HOLD rating on EYS, with a fair value estimate of S$0.535. (Lee Wen Ching)
NEWS HEADLINES
- Keppel Corp has won a S$74.8m turnkey contract to design and build a waste-to-energy cogeneration plant for a paper-mill in Sweden.
- Banyan Tree hopes to close a fund aimed at raising up to US$400m for investments in Indochina by the end of this year.
- Neptune Orient Lines carried 10% more containers on its ships in the four weeks to March 7 compared with the same period a year ago.
- The past three months have seen S$105b or 13.2% wiped off the stock market value of Singapore-listed companies.
- The S$162.8m collective sale of Makeway View in the Newton area has been rescinded due to higher than expected development charges.
- Total loans made by Singapore banks hit S$241.8b at the end of February, up 21.9% YoY – the fastest pace of expansion since May 1995.
- The Urban Redevelopment Authority has put a 1.77ha hotel site in Balestier Road on the market.
- Vega Co, a wholly-owned subsidiary of The HSBC Private Equity Fund 6, is offering to buy Sing Lun Holdings for S$119.6m or S$0.46 per share. Its stake is now 71.32%.
- Pokka Corp posted a more than seven-fold jump in full-year net profit to S$7m thanks to better profit margins and double-digit revenue growth.
Parkway Holdings (S$3.59) - Rights issue at S$2.18 per share
Parkway has proposed a renounceable underwritten rights issue of up to
360.4m new shares at S$2.18 per share, on the
basis of seven rights shares for every 15 existing shares, to raise net
proceeds of S$760.1m. Assuming that all the
new shares pursuant to the rights issue are subscribed, the company
will have an enlarged issued and paid-up share
capital of 1131.6m shares. The joint financial advisers and
underwriters have agreed to underwrite the rights issue,
while TPG Asia, who currently has aggregate shareholding interest of
24% in Parkway, has agreed to purchase and/or
procure of such number of rights shares not successfully applied for
under the rights issue.
We recommend accepting the offer as: 1) the offer price is at a 24%
discount to our target price of S$2.85; 2) the
offer P/E is below the lower-end of its 6-month historical forward P/E
range of 28.7 ? 45.1x; and 3) fundamentals
remain strong with population growth, aging population, rising
affluence and increase in medical tourism leading to
greater demand for quality healthcare in Singapore and the region.
Quick Takes
* Global Equity Technicals - Can Asia lead the way?
News of the Day
* Lehman to issue US$3 billion convertible preferred shares
* US$2 billion hedge fund Pardus suspends withdrawals
* Keppel wins 34m euro co-gen plant deal
* Pokka earnings soar seven-fold
* Letters shed light on why two Swissco independent directors
quit
* Vega's stake in Sing Lun now at 71.32%
* Banyan Tree to close Viet fund by end 2008
Technical Trading Ideas
* Luzhou Bio-Chem Technology
360.4m new shares at S$2.18 per share, on the
basis of seven rights shares for every 15 existing shares, to raise net
proceeds of S$760.1m. Assuming that all the
new shares pursuant to the rights issue are subscribed, the company
will have an enlarged issued and paid-up share
capital of 1131.6m shares. The joint financial advisers and
underwriters have agreed to underwrite the rights issue,
while TPG Asia, who currently has aggregate shareholding interest of
24% in Parkway, has agreed to purchase and/or
procure of such number of rights shares not successfully applied for
under the rights issue.
We recommend accepting the offer as: 1) the offer price is at a 24%
discount to our target price of S$2.85; 2) the
offer P/E is below the lower-end of its 6-month historical forward P/E
range of 28.7 ? 45.1x; and 3) fundamentals
remain strong with population growth, aging population, rising
affluence and increase in medical tourism leading to
greater demand for quality healthcare in Singapore and the region.
Quick Takes
* Global Equity Technicals - Can Asia lead the way?
News of the Day
* Lehman to issue US$3 billion convertible preferred shares
* US$2 billion hedge fund Pardus suspends withdrawals
* Keppel wins 34m euro co-gen plant deal
* Pokka earnings soar seven-fold
* Letters shed light on why two Swissco independent directors
quit
* Vega's stake in Sing Lun now at 71.32%
* Banyan Tree to close Viet fund by end 2008
Technical Trading Ideas
* Luzhou Bio-Chem Technology
S-Chips Sector : The Calm After The Storm
l We have upgraded S-chips from MARKET WEIGHT to OVERWEIGHT primarily on
attractive valuations. Compared with China domestic A-shares and
H-shares, S-chips have been trading at deep discounts after a severe
correction in 2H07. We believe investors' concerns over China's economic
slowdown have been overdone. It is time for smart money to move around.
l Beijing is finding it challenging to strike a balance between raging
inflation and an economic slowdown. The weak US dollar and skyrocketing
commodity prices add fuel to the fire. Thanks to its closed financial
system and strong domestic consumption, China will be able to ride out
this difficult period. We still believe China could achieve 10% GDP
growth and CPI growth of below 5.5%. A hard landing and hyperinflation
are unlikely to take place in China.
l We like two themes at this juncture, both of which are defensive in
nature and supported by the government. The first theme is consumer
plays and the other is agriculture-related companies. Companies in these
industries are likely to achieve fast-paced growth.
l For S-chips Corporate Day, we present you with nine companies that
are leaders in their respective industries. Though they undergo cyclical
growth, they have solid fundamentals and are growing rapidly. There is
no doubt a few of them will eventually become respectable global
enterprises.
Forward Target
Price PE Price
(S$) (x) (S$)
China Animal
Healthcare 0.16 n.a. n.a.
China Energy 0.38 n.a. n.a.
China XLX Fertiliser 0.505 6.9 1.84
China Sky 0.825 4.6 2.16
COSCO Corp (S) 2.97 14.8 7.00
China Hongxing 0.425 12.5 1.07
Li Heng Chemical 0.52 n.a. n.a.
Synear Food 0.395 5.8 1.20
Yangzijiang
Shipbuilding 0.785 n.a. n.a.
attractive valuations. Compared with China domestic A-shares and
H-shares, S-chips have been trading at deep discounts after a severe
correction in 2H07. We believe investors' concerns over China's economic
slowdown have been overdone. It is time for smart money to move around.
l Beijing is finding it challenging to strike a balance between raging
inflation and an economic slowdown. The weak US dollar and skyrocketing
commodity prices add fuel to the fire. Thanks to its closed financial
system and strong domestic consumption, China will be able to ride out
this difficult period. We still believe China could achieve 10% GDP
growth and CPI growth of below 5.5%. A hard landing and hyperinflation
are unlikely to take place in China.
l We like two themes at this juncture, both of which are defensive in
nature and supported by the government. The first theme is consumer
plays and the other is agriculture-related companies. Companies in these
industries are likely to achieve fast-paced growth.
l For S-chips Corporate Day, we present you with nine companies that
are leaders in their respective industries. Though they undergo cyclical
growth, they have solid fundamentals and are growing rapidly. There is
no doubt a few of them will eventually become respectable global
enterprises.
Forward Target
Price PE Price
(S$) (x) (S$)
China Animal
Healthcare 0.16 n.a. n.a.
China Energy 0.38 n.a. n.a.
China XLX Fertiliser 0.505 6.9 1.84
China Sky 0.825 4.6 2.16
COSCO Corp (S) 2.97 14.8 7.00
China Hongxing 0.425 12.5 1.07
Li Heng Chemical 0.52 n.a. n.a.
Synear Food 0.395 5.8 1.20
Yangzijiang
Shipbuilding 0.785 n.a. n.a.
Interra Resources Limited
Interra Resources Limited announced a full year net profit after tax of US$2.26m, recovering from a net loss of US$1.74m in FY2006. Revenue showed a 16% growth from US$13.1m to US$15.2m, a 16% increase. Gross profit showed a 42% increase from US$4.48m to US$6.37m. The favorable year on year results was due to higher oil prices and shareable production. The weighted average oil price in FY06 was US$64.41 per barrel compared with US$73.70 per barrel in FY07. Interra's share of shareable production increased by 4751 barrels from 276,423 barrels of oil in FY06 to 281,174 barrels of oil in FY2007
Boustead Singapore Limited
Contracts win by Salcon
Two substantial water and wastewater engineering projects. Boustead recently announced (on 24 March 2008) that it's fully owned subsidiary, Salcon Pte Ltd, had secured two water and waste water engineering projects worth S$32 million.
Contracts awarded by major players speaks volume of Salcon's experience and expertise; more contracts expected. These contracts from Samsung and Toshiba further enhanced Salcon's credibility as one of Asia's leading water and wastewater engineering specialists. While we believe Salcon will win more contracts in the near term (within 6-12 months), we expect most of them to be of smaller sizes, with one or two significant projects of sizeable amount.
Still a BUY; fair value estimate revised down but fundamentals remain strong. Together with the collective S$24 million contracts awarded from the global oil and gas industries announced on 10 March 2008 by its Energy-Related Engineering Division, Boustead's total outstanding order book stands in excess of S$400 million (recognition expected over the period FY08-10). In view of its experience and strong technical expertise, we are confident that Boustead will continue to secure contracts, particularly from its Energy-Related Engineering Division and from Salcon.
Our FCFE valuation yields a fair value of S$2.47 which translates to a FY09 P/E of 13.0x and P/B of 3.1x. We maintain our earnings estimates for the period FY08-10 as our prior assumptions have already factored in potential contracts wins by Boustead (recognisable over the FY09-10 period) as well as rising costs environment. However, our valuation assumptions are tweaked to reflect current volatile market conditions and lower long term growth due to perceived slow down in the global economy. Although with a revised down fair value estimate, we continue to like Boustead in view of its experienced management, strong balance sheet, and net cash position. We reiterate our BUY recommendation on Boustead and would view further significant contracts win as catalyst for potential upgrade in our fair value estimate.
Two substantial water and wastewater engineering projects. Boustead recently announced (on 24 March 2008) that it's fully owned subsidiary, Salcon Pte Ltd, had secured two water and waste water engineering projects worth S$32 million.
Contracts awarded by major players speaks volume of Salcon's experience and expertise; more contracts expected. These contracts from Samsung and Toshiba further enhanced Salcon's credibility as one of Asia's leading water and wastewater engineering specialists. While we believe Salcon will win more contracts in the near term (within 6-12 months), we expect most of them to be of smaller sizes, with one or two significant projects of sizeable amount.
Still a BUY; fair value estimate revised down but fundamentals remain strong. Together with the collective S$24 million contracts awarded from the global oil and gas industries announced on 10 March 2008 by its Energy-Related Engineering Division, Boustead's total outstanding order book stands in excess of S$400 million (recognition expected over the period FY08-10). In view of its experience and strong technical expertise, we are confident that Boustead will continue to secure contracts, particularly from its Energy-Related Engineering Division and from Salcon.
Our FCFE valuation yields a fair value of S$2.47 which translates to a FY09 P/E of 13.0x and P/B of 3.1x. We maintain our earnings estimates for the period FY08-10 as our prior assumptions have already factored in potential contracts wins by Boustead (recognisable over the FY09-10 period) as well as rising costs environment. However, our valuation assumptions are tweaked to reflect current volatile market conditions and lower long term growth due to perceived slow down in the global economy. Although with a revised down fair value estimate, we continue to like Boustead in view of its experienced management, strong balance sheet, and net cash position. We reiterate our BUY recommendation on Boustead and would view further significant contracts win as catalyst for potential upgrade in our fair value estimate.
Singapore Exchange: Time for a relook
Summary: Singapore Exchange (SGX) has also been hit by the recent volatility in the market. Its share price has fallen in line with its regional peers, down about 57% from its 52-week high. This is reflective of the generally weak sentiment in the market where trading volume has fallen in Feb and Mar this year. Taking these factors into account, we have imputed the drop in trading activities into our 2H FY08 estimates, and lowered FY08 earnings by 11.7% to S$428.6m and FY09 earnings by 12.4% to S$434.5m. Using lower valuation of 21x (versus 19x for its regional peers and 23x for its global peers), we are lowering our fair value estimate to S$8.20 (previous: $11.20). As SGX's stable revenue (terminal, listing, price information and other fees) is fairly secured, we believe that together with the attractive yield of 4.9% at current price level, the stock is starting to look attractive again, especially for medium to longer term holders as SGX continues to grow its suite of products and services to buoy its long term income. With recent volatile market conditions and on price weakness, SGX is a BUY. (Carmen Lee)
Rickmers Maritime: Key charterer moves into the shipping trust space
Summary: The world's third largest container shipping company CMA CGM SA (CMA) has spun off one of its units in a play that mirrors the shipping trust concept. According to the Wall Street Journal, it will retain a 34% stake in Global Ship Lease (GSL), which would be listed on NYSE. GSL owns 12 container ships with five more under contract from parent CMA, all of which are chartered back to CMA with an average term of 11 years. CMA currently charters six of Rickmers Maritime's (RMT) ten existing vessels – contributing about 60% of the trust's revenue. There is no immediate threat to RMT as CMA is locked in these charters until 2015. However, the future development of their relationship will depend on the extent of CMA's demand for vessels and the privileges it grants GSL (such as rights of first refusal). GSL would likely get first priority in a low-demand scenario. At the same time, RMT is aggressively diversifying its customer base. If its plans for 13 contracted acquisitions are approved at an upcoming EGM, CMA's share of its revenue would decline to about 21% in 2010. Maintain BUY at target price S$1.22. (Meenal Kumar)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
NEWS HEADLINES
- CapitaLand has granted CapitaCommercial Trust a call option to acquire office building 1 George Street for about S$1.2bn. CapitaLand said it would provide yield protection to the REIT at 4.25% for five years.
- A-REIT announced its property value gained S$483.6m at its annual valuation, an appreciation of about 14%.
- Lippo-Mapletree Indonesia Retail Trust said it will purchase Sun Plaza, a retail mall located in Medan, North Sumatra for S$147.4m.
- According to the BT, Allco REIT intends to reduce its leverage from 43% currently to about 30% over the next 12 months.
- Asia Pacific Breweries has raised the annual capacity of its Vietnam plant by more than 50% at cost of US$1m.
- Tee International has won contracts for electrical installation for the Marina Bay Sands IR worth S$109m.
- Abterra Ltd will buy 49.9% of Shanxi Loudong, a producer of coal and other by-products, for up to S$181m in new Abterra shares.
- Ausgroup has won a new offshore contract worth A$12m, taking its order book above A$190m.
- SP Ausnet has upgraded its earnings forecasts buoyed by higher revenues and a debt refinancing.
Please refer to the full report for more information and additional disclosures.
Rickmers Maritime: Key charterer moves into the shipping trust space
Summary: The world's third largest container shipping company CMA CGM SA (CMA) has spun off one of its units in a play that mirrors the shipping trust concept. According to the Wall Street Journal, it will retain a 34% stake in Global Ship Lease (GSL), which would be listed on NYSE. GSL owns 12 container ships with five more under contract from parent CMA, all of which are chartered back to CMA with an average term of 11 years. CMA currently charters six of Rickmers Maritime's (RMT) ten existing vessels – contributing about 60% of the trust's revenue. There is no immediate threat to RMT as CMA is locked in these charters until 2015. However, the future development of their relationship will depend on the extent of CMA's demand for vessels and the privileges it grants GSL (such as rights of first refusal). GSL would likely get first priority in a low-demand scenario. At the same time, RMT is aggressively diversifying its customer base. If its plans for 13 contracted acquisitions are approved at an upcoming EGM, CMA's share of its revenue would decline to about 21% in 2010. Maintain BUY at target price S$1.22. (Meenal Kumar)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
NEWS HEADLINES
- CapitaLand has granted CapitaCommercial Trust a call option to acquire office building 1 George Street for about S$1.2bn. CapitaLand said it would provide yield protection to the REIT at 4.25% for five years.
- A-REIT announced its property value gained S$483.6m at its annual valuation, an appreciation of about 14%.
- Lippo-Mapletree Indonesia Retail Trust said it will purchase Sun Plaza, a retail mall located in Medan, North Sumatra for S$147.4m.
- According to the BT, Allco REIT intends to reduce its leverage from 43% currently to about 30% over the next 12 months.
- Asia Pacific Breweries has raised the annual capacity of its Vietnam plant by more than 50% at cost of US$1m.
- Tee International has won contracts for electrical installation for the Marina Bay Sands IR worth S$109m.
- Abterra Ltd will buy 49.9% of Shanxi Loudong, a producer of coal and other by-products, for up to S$181m in new Abterra shares.
- Ausgroup has won a new offshore contract worth A$12m, taking its order book above A$190m.
- SP Ausnet has upgraded its earnings forecasts buoyed by higher revenues and a debt refinancing.
Please refer to the full report for more information and additional disclosures.
Singapore Exchange: Time for a relook
Summary: Singapore Exchange (SGX) has also been hit by the recent volatility in the market. Its share price has fallen in line with its regional peers, down about 57% from its 52-week high. This is reflective of the generally weak sentiment in the market where trading volume has fallen in Feb and Mar this year. Taking these factors into account, we have imputed the drop in trading activities into our 2H FY08 estimates, and lowered FY08 earnings by 11.7% to S$428.6m and FY09 earnings by 12.4% to S$434.5m. Using lower valuation of 21x (versus 19x for its regional peers and 23x for its global peers), we are lowering our fair value estimate to S$8.20 (previous: $11.20). As SGX's stable revenue (terminal, listing, price information and other fees) is fairly secured, we believe that together with the attractive yield of 4.9% at current price level, the stock is starting to look attractive again, especially for medium to longer term holders as SGX continues to grow its suite of products and services to buoy its long term income. With recent volatile market conditions and on price weakness, SGX is a BUY. (Carmen Lee)
Rickmers Maritime: Key charterer moves into the shipping trust space
Summary: The world's third largest container shipping company CMA CGM SA (CMA) has spun off one of its units in a play that mirrors the shipping trust concept. According to the Wall Street Journal, it will retain a 34% stake in Global Ship Lease (GSL), which would be listed on NYSE. GSL owns 12 container ships with five more under contract from parent CMA, all of which are chartered back to CMA with an average term of 11 years. CMA currently charters six of Rickmers Maritime's (RMT) ten existing vessels – contributing about 60% of the trust's revenue. There is no immediate threat to RMT as CMA is locked in these charters until 2015. However, the future development of their relationship will depend on the extent of CMA's demand for vessels and the privileges it grants GSL (such as rights of first refusal). GSL would likely get first priority in a low-demand scenario. At the same time, RMT is aggressively diversifying its customer base. If its plans for 13 contracted acquisitions are approved at an upcoming EGM, CMA's share of its revenue would decline to about 21% in 2010. Maintain BUY at target price S$1.22. (Meenal Kumar)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
NEWS HEADLINES
- CapitaLand has granted CapitaCommercial Trust a call option to acquire office building 1 George Street for about S$1.2bn. CapitaLand said it would provide yield protection to the REIT at 4.25% for five years.
- A-REIT announced its property value gained S$483.6m at its annual valuation, an appreciation of about 14%.
- Lippo-Mapletree Indonesia Retail Trust said it will purchase Sun Plaza, a retail mall located in Medan, North Sumatra for S$147.4m.
- According to the BT, Allco REIT intends to reduce its leverage from 43% currently to about 30% over the next 12 months.
- Asia Pacific Breweries has raised the annual capacity of its Vietnam plant by more than 50% at cost of US$1m.
- Tee International has won contracts for electrical installation for the Marina Bay Sands IR worth S$109m.
- Abterra Ltd will buy 49.9% of Shanxi Loudong, a producer of coal and other by-products, for up to S$181m in new Abterra shares.
- Ausgroup has won a new offshore contract worth A$12m, taking its order book above A$190m.
- SP Ausnet has upgraded its earnings forecasts buoyed by higher revenues and a debt refinancing.
Please refer to the full report for more information and additional disclosures.
Rickmers Maritime: Key charterer moves into the shipping trust space
Summary: The world's third largest container shipping company CMA CGM SA (CMA) has spun off one of its units in a play that mirrors the shipping trust concept. According to the Wall Street Journal, it will retain a 34% stake in Global Ship Lease (GSL), which would be listed on NYSE. GSL owns 12 container ships with five more under contract from parent CMA, all of which are chartered back to CMA with an average term of 11 years. CMA currently charters six of Rickmers Maritime's (RMT) ten existing vessels – contributing about 60% of the trust's revenue. There is no immediate threat to RMT as CMA is locked in these charters until 2015. However, the future development of their relationship will depend on the extent of CMA's demand for vessels and the privileges it grants GSL (such as rights of first refusal). GSL would likely get first priority in a low-demand scenario. At the same time, RMT is aggressively diversifying its customer base. If its plans for 13 contracted acquisitions are approved at an upcoming EGM, CMA's share of its revenue would decline to about 21% in 2010. Maintain BUY at target price S$1.22. (Meenal Kumar)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
NEWS HEADLINES
- CapitaLand has granted CapitaCommercial Trust a call option to acquire office building 1 George Street for about S$1.2bn. CapitaLand said it would provide yield protection to the REIT at 4.25% for five years.
- A-REIT announced its property value gained S$483.6m at its annual valuation, an appreciation of about 14%.
- Lippo-Mapletree Indonesia Retail Trust said it will purchase Sun Plaza, a retail mall located in Medan, North Sumatra for S$147.4m.
- According to the BT, Allco REIT intends to reduce its leverage from 43% currently to about 30% over the next 12 months.
- Asia Pacific Breweries has raised the annual capacity of its Vietnam plant by more than 50% at cost of US$1m.
- Tee International has won contracts for electrical installation for the Marina Bay Sands IR worth S$109m.
- Abterra Ltd will buy 49.9% of Shanxi Loudong, a producer of coal and other by-products, for up to S$181m in new Abterra shares.
- Ausgroup has won a new offshore contract worth A$12m, taking its order book above A$190m.
- SP Ausnet has upgraded its earnings forecasts buoyed by higher revenues and a debt refinancing.
Please refer to the full report for more information and additional disclosures.
China Hongxing Sports (S$0.49) - Growth after the Olympics
We spoke to management recently regarding its growth strategy
post-Olympics. Hongxing plans to continue its retail
network expansion and A&P to raise brand visibility as it believes that
China's sporting market will continue to
grow, buttressed by other sporting events like the 16th Asian Games in
2010 and rising sports participation. In
addition, Hongxing has secured indicative orders worth Rm1bn during its
March trade fair. We have made no changes to
our earnings estimates and maintain our target price of S$0.86, based
on 16.5x CY09 earnings, or a 20% premium to
average valuations for the sports shoe sector. Reiterate Outperform on
the back of robust industry prospects.
Quick Takes
* Bukit Sembawang Estates (S$8.99) - Airview Towers falls
through
* Factory Output - All clusters contributed to February's
growth
News of the Day
* Rising tide of foreigners snapping up Singapore property
* Tuas Power plans Singapore's first coal-fired plant-paper
* CCT to buy 1 George Street for S$1.165 billion
* Maybank buys Temasek stake in Indonesian bank
* State Bank of India gets Singapore full bank license
* LMIR Trust makes maiden buy
Technical Trading Ideas
* Wheelock Properties (S)
post-Olympics. Hongxing plans to continue its retail
network expansion and A&P to raise brand visibility as it believes that
China's sporting market will continue to
grow, buttressed by other sporting events like the 16th Asian Games in
2010 and rising sports participation. In
addition, Hongxing has secured indicative orders worth Rm1bn during its
March trade fair. We have made no changes to
our earnings estimates and maintain our target price of S$0.86, based
on 16.5x CY09 earnings, or a 20% premium to
average valuations for the sports shoe sector. Reiterate Outperform on
the back of robust industry prospects.
Quick Takes
* Bukit Sembawang Estates (S$8.99) - Airview Towers falls
through
* Factory Output - All clusters contributed to February's
growth
News of the Day
* Rising tide of foreigners snapping up Singapore property
* Tuas Power plans Singapore's first coal-fired plant-paper
* CCT to buy 1 George Street for S$1.165 billion
* Maybank buys Temasek stake in Indonesian bank
* State Bank of India gets Singapore full bank license
* LMIR Trust makes maiden buy
Technical Trading Ideas
* Wheelock Properties (S)
Singapore market – Dragged down by poor US economic number
• Singapore: Singapore market declined following a two day rally. Due to a lack of fresh buying leads, investors chose to lock in profits and wait at the sideline. This is despite the unexpected 10% increase in February factory output. Cues are still heavily dependent on US economic data. FTSE-STI down 4.97 or 0.2% to close at 2,995.22 points. Trading volume was 1.47 billion shares valued at S$1.57 billion and losers outnumbered gainers 370 to 253. Commodities supplier Olam International Ltd suffered a 14.1% lost to S$1.95 after its rating was cut to "sell" from "neutral" by Merrill Lynch.
• Wall Street: US market retreated after pessimistic numbers on February's durable goods orders. The Commerce Department released a 1.7% dip in last month's order for durable goods, which is indicative on business spending and consumer demand. This is its second consecutive shrink. Adding to worries, the Commerce Department also announced that sales of new homes slumped 1.8% in February, which dragged down sales for the fourth straight month to a 13-year low. Dow Jones slipped 109.74 or 0.9% to 12,422.86 points and Nasdaq dropped 16.69 or 0.7% to close at 2,324.36 points. However, crude oil soared US$4.58 to close at US$105.80 per barrel on NYMEX.
• Outlook: The mini-rally that started on Monday and moved the benchmark STI to the 3,000 level is likely to end earlier than our expectation. We have expected the market to rally towards the end of the week on expectation of better Singapore manufacturing number. True, the index for industrial productions has registered another month of double-digit growth, by 10% in February 2008 after growing 12.8% in January (see Chart). However, investors chose to remain at the sidelines pending further development in the US. Thus, the worst-than-expected US durable orders are likely to lead to some profit taking today. The US economy is probably in a recession now. However, the Singapore economy is expected to remain healthy, shown by the latest manufacturing numbers. With the backing of the Singapore economy, buy on weakness will still be the preferred investment strategy.
Company Highlights
SP Ausnet – Upgrades earnings forecasts
• SP Ausnet, a supplier of energy like electricity and gas, has guided an earnings increase for its 2008/09 financial year. Ausnet expects net profit to be about 15% higher than the forecast in its 2007 explanatory memorandum of A$147.5 million.
• Key reasons for the upward revision include the decision on transmission charges by the Australian Engery Regulators and also higher capital expenditure allowances. On top of that, Ausnet will also see reduction in its interest cost due to the refinancing of A$1.55 billion debt and finalisation of new interest rate hedges.
Asia Pacific Breweries Ltd – Invested US$1m to increase beer production in Vietnam
• Asia Pacific Breweries ("APB"), leading brewery group in the Asia Pacific region, has invested some S$1.4 million to increase production capacity at its wholly-owned brewery in Hatay, located outside Hanoi in North Vietnam.
• Hatay Brewery can now produce 460,000 hectolitres of beer, up 50 percent from its initial capacity. The plant brews beer under the labels Tiger, Heineken, Anchor and Bivina.
• APB says Vietnam is a key part of its business in Indochina. The region is now APB's largest profit generator, accounting for 48% of pre-tax profit and 37% of revenue in FY07.
• APB's operations in Indochina comprise five breweries in Vietnam, one in Cambodia and one in Laos, which was officially opened two weeks ago.
• Wall Street: US market retreated after pessimistic numbers on February's durable goods orders. The Commerce Department released a 1.7% dip in last month's order for durable goods, which is indicative on business spending and consumer demand. This is its second consecutive shrink. Adding to worries, the Commerce Department also announced that sales of new homes slumped 1.8% in February, which dragged down sales for the fourth straight month to a 13-year low. Dow Jones slipped 109.74 or 0.9% to 12,422.86 points and Nasdaq dropped 16.69 or 0.7% to close at 2,324.36 points. However, crude oil soared US$4.58 to close at US$105.80 per barrel on NYMEX.
• Outlook: The mini-rally that started on Monday and moved the benchmark STI to the 3,000 level is likely to end earlier than our expectation. We have expected the market to rally towards the end of the week on expectation of better Singapore manufacturing number. True, the index for industrial productions has registered another month of double-digit growth, by 10% in February 2008 after growing 12.8% in January (see Chart). However, investors chose to remain at the sidelines pending further development in the US. Thus, the worst-than-expected US durable orders are likely to lead to some profit taking today. The US economy is probably in a recession now. However, the Singapore economy is expected to remain healthy, shown by the latest manufacturing numbers. With the backing of the Singapore economy, buy on weakness will still be the preferred investment strategy.
Company Highlights
SP Ausnet – Upgrades earnings forecasts
• SP Ausnet, a supplier of energy like electricity and gas, has guided an earnings increase for its 2008/09 financial year. Ausnet expects net profit to be about 15% higher than the forecast in its 2007 explanatory memorandum of A$147.5 million.
• Key reasons for the upward revision include the decision on transmission charges by the Australian Engery Regulators and also higher capital expenditure allowances. On top of that, Ausnet will also see reduction in its interest cost due to the refinancing of A$1.55 billion debt and finalisation of new interest rate hedges.
Asia Pacific Breweries Ltd – Invested US$1m to increase beer production in Vietnam
• Asia Pacific Breweries ("APB"), leading brewery group in the Asia Pacific region, has invested some S$1.4 million to increase production capacity at its wholly-owned brewery in Hatay, located outside Hanoi in North Vietnam.
• Hatay Brewery can now produce 460,000 hectolitres of beer, up 50 percent from its initial capacity. The plant brews beer under the labels Tiger, Heineken, Anchor and Bivina.
• APB says Vietnam is a key part of its business in Indochina. The region is now APB's largest profit generator, accounting for 48% of pre-tax profit and 37% of revenue in FY07.
• APB's operations in Indochina comprise five breweries in Vietnam, one in Cambodia and one in Laos, which was officially opened two weeks ago.
Capitaland: Mixed development in Vietnam could contribute could contribute S$103m in
Capitaland announced its plans to build approximately 1,400 apartments and commercial and retail space on the 6.7-hectare site in District 2 in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) in partnership with Thian Du Co Ltd. The total investment capital for the project is estimated at S$690m and will be developed in phases. CapitaLand's equity interest will be 60% and Thian Du holding the remaining 40% stake. Assuming at least a 20% development margin similar to its other projects in Vietnam, the project could potentially contribute more than S$103m in pre tax profits.
Capitaland plans to build high-rise condominium with 28 storeys on the site. The first phase of the project is expected to launch in 2Q09. The move by Capita Land is in line with its expansion and diversification strategy by setting up a strong presence in the Asia's growth cities and benefit from the property upcycle in that region. We have not incorporated the potential S$103m contribution at this point in time as it is small compared to the overall RNAV. We will incorporate it subsequently as we get more details on the project. We are reviewing our target price and recommendation.
Capitaland plans to build high-rise condominium with 28 storeys on the site. The first phase of the project is expected to launch in 2Q09. The move by Capita Land is in line with its expansion and diversification strategy by setting up a strong presence in the Asia's growth cities and benefit from the property upcycle in that region. We have not incorporated the potential S$103m contribution at this point in time as it is small compared to the overall RNAV. We will incorporate it subsequently as we get more details on the project. We are reviewing our target price and recommendation.
HG Metal Manufacturing (S$0.30) - Shortage of steel
We remain positive on HG Metal's near-term prospects as we believe it
will benefit from a combination of rising
steel prices, robust construction and marine and offshore sectors in
Singapore, and a weaker US$. We have kept our
FY08-10 EPS forecasts unchanged for the time being in view of the
volatility of steel prices. However, we believe
there could be upside surprises to our FY08 numbers if steel prices
stay at current levels in 2HFY08. We have rolled
over our target P/E from CY08 to CY09, using 8x instead of 9x to factor
in compressions in the market P/E. However,
our target price remains relatively unchanged at S$0.61. Maintain
Outperform, given the potential upside to our
numbers from any higher-than-expected ASPs.
Quick Takes
* CapitaCommercial Trust (S$2.11) - One George Street on the
cards
* STX Pan Ocean (S$2.86) - 1Q guidance substantially ahead of
expectations
* StarHub (S$3.07) - Wins additional 2G spectrum rights
News of the Day
* US GDP up a feeble 0.6% in Q4
* Private bank RBS Coutts looks to expand in Singapore
* $484m gain in value of A-Reit properties
* KSE bags US$130m charter deal
* Templeton wants 24% more for AsiaPharm
* FCT to buy $480m malls from parent
* Ezra inks US$77.6m worth of charter deals
Technical Trading Ideas
* Celestial NutriFoods
will benefit from a combination of rising
steel prices, robust construction and marine and offshore sectors in
Singapore, and a weaker US$. We have kept our
FY08-10 EPS forecasts unchanged for the time being in view of the
volatility of steel prices. However, we believe
there could be upside surprises to our FY08 numbers if steel prices
stay at current levels in 2HFY08. We have rolled
over our target P/E from CY08 to CY09, using 8x instead of 9x to factor
in compressions in the market P/E. However,
our target price remains relatively unchanged at S$0.61. Maintain
Outperform, given the potential upside to our
numbers from any higher-than-expected ASPs.
Quick Takes
* CapitaCommercial Trust (S$2.11) - One George Street on the
cards
* STX Pan Ocean (S$2.86) - 1Q guidance substantially ahead of
expectations
* StarHub (S$3.07) - Wins additional 2G spectrum rights
News of the Day
* US GDP up a feeble 0.6% in Q4
* Private bank RBS Coutts looks to expand in Singapore
* $484m gain in value of A-Reit properties
* KSE bags US$130m charter deal
* Templeton wants 24% more for AsiaPharm
* FCT to buy $480m malls from parent
* Ezra inks US$77.6m worth of charter deals
Technical Trading Ideas
* Celestial NutriFoods
Singapore market – Continue to track US development
• Singapore: Singapore market closed higher despite fall before mid-day. Investors went on bargain hunting and collected blue chips after earlier fall during the day due to weak US economic data on order for durable goods and low sales of new home. FTSE-STI dropped as much as 1.2% before mid-day, coming back toward the end of trading hours to close 29.98 or 1.0% higher at 3,025.20 points. Trading volume was 1.49 billion shares valued at S$1.63 billion and gainers took lead against decliners 398 to 248. Local bourse operator Singapore Exchange soared S$0.36 or 4.9% to S$7.76.
• Wall Street: US market retreated for the second day on weak financial results posted from technology giant Oracle Corp, and rumours that Lehman Brothers could be the next sub-prime casualty following Bear Stearns. Technology shares suffered ripples of sell-off after Oracle delivered weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue and made cautious statements on its outlook. Providing technology solution to a lot of different sectors in different countries, Oracle's cautious sales outlook could indicate softer business spending in the months to come. Dow Jones dropped 120.40 or 1.0% to 12,302.46 points and tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 43.53 or 1.9% to close at 2,280.83 points. Lehman's share plunged 8.9% to US$38.71. Crude oil up US$1.68 to close at US$107.58 per barrel on NYMEX.
• Outlook: Development in the US will continue to dominate local sentiments. For the pass three weeks, the opening price of STI has track the closing of the Dow without fail. When Dow was closed lower, STI opened down and when Dow closed higher, the STI opened up. No exception is expected for today. With the Dow dropped more than 100 points yesterday, STI is expected to open down. The reasons for investors to track the development in the US instead of focusing on Singapore economy were easy to understand. Singapore is an open economy and its performance will be easily affected by global economies, especially the world largest economy, the US. Investors' memory is still fresh. The most recent US slowdown in 2001 has dragged the Singapore economy down by 2.1% (See Chart). However, the 2001 Singapore recession was partly due to the hollowing out of the manufacturing sectors to cheap producing economies and the Singapore economy underwent restructuring. The Singapore economy has since emerged stronger. We believe it is likely to remain healthy during the current US slowdown or recession, just as it did during the 1982's and 1991's US recessions.
Company Highlights
OKP Holdings Limited – Awarded S$16.86m contract to widen CTE
• OKP Holdings Limited is a leading home-grown infrastructure and civil engineering company in the region, specialising in the construction of airport runways and taxiways, expressways, flyovers, vehicular bridges, urban and arterial roads, secured a S$16.86m contract to widen the stretch of the CTE between Ang Mo Kio Avenue 1 and Ang Mo Kio Avenue 3.
• OKP will be adding a lane in each direction along the 1.5 km stretch. Work is expected to be completed by end-August 2009.
• As at 26 February, the Group's order book based on secured contracts stood at S$209.2m.
KS Energy Services Limited – Secured US$130m time charter contract
• KS Energy Services Limited ("KS Energy"), a leading one-stop energy services provider to the global oil & gas ("O&G") and petrochemical industries, secured a firm 3 years drilling contract in excess of US$130m for the charter hire of a 300-feet drilling jackup rig.
• The contract is for the charter of the "KS MedStar-1", a 300-feet cantilever drilling jackup rig. The KS MedStar-1 will serve drilling activities in the Mediterranean Sea for a firm contract period of 3 years plus a renewal option for one year. If the renewal option for one year is exercised, the value of the contract will be increased to US$175.2m.
• Acquired in July 2007, KS Energy expects to take delivery of this rig in March 2008. The funding for the acquisition of the rig will come from a combination of debt financing and internal financial resources.
Best Regards,
Westcomb Research Team
• Wall Street: US market retreated for the second day on weak financial results posted from technology giant Oracle Corp, and rumours that Lehman Brothers could be the next sub-prime casualty following Bear Stearns. Technology shares suffered ripples of sell-off after Oracle delivered weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue and made cautious statements on its outlook. Providing technology solution to a lot of different sectors in different countries, Oracle's cautious sales outlook could indicate softer business spending in the months to come. Dow Jones dropped 120.40 or 1.0% to 12,302.46 points and tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 43.53 or 1.9% to close at 2,280.83 points. Lehman's share plunged 8.9% to US$38.71. Crude oil up US$1.68 to close at US$107.58 per barrel on NYMEX.
• Outlook: Development in the US will continue to dominate local sentiments. For the pass three weeks, the opening price of STI has track the closing of the Dow without fail. When Dow was closed lower, STI opened down and when Dow closed higher, the STI opened up. No exception is expected for today. With the Dow dropped more than 100 points yesterday, STI is expected to open down. The reasons for investors to track the development in the US instead of focusing on Singapore economy were easy to understand. Singapore is an open economy and its performance will be easily affected by global economies, especially the world largest economy, the US. Investors' memory is still fresh. The most recent US slowdown in 2001 has dragged the Singapore economy down by 2.1% (See Chart). However, the 2001 Singapore recession was partly due to the hollowing out of the manufacturing sectors to cheap producing economies and the Singapore economy underwent restructuring. The Singapore economy has since emerged stronger. We believe it is likely to remain healthy during the current US slowdown or recession, just as it did during the 1982's and 1991's US recessions.
Company Highlights
OKP Holdings Limited – Awarded S$16.86m contract to widen CTE
• OKP Holdings Limited is a leading home-grown infrastructure and civil engineering company in the region, specialising in the construction of airport runways and taxiways, expressways, flyovers, vehicular bridges, urban and arterial roads, secured a S$16.86m contract to widen the stretch of the CTE between Ang Mo Kio Avenue 1 and Ang Mo Kio Avenue 3.
• OKP will be adding a lane in each direction along the 1.5 km stretch. Work is expected to be completed by end-August 2009.
• As at 26 February, the Group's order book based on secured contracts stood at S$209.2m.
KS Energy Services Limited – Secured US$130m time charter contract
• KS Energy Services Limited ("KS Energy"), a leading one-stop energy services provider to the global oil & gas ("O&G") and petrochemical industries, secured a firm 3 years drilling contract in excess of US$130m for the charter hire of a 300-feet drilling jackup rig.
• The contract is for the charter of the "KS MedStar-1", a 300-feet cantilever drilling jackup rig. The KS MedStar-1 will serve drilling activities in the Mediterranean Sea for a firm contract period of 3 years plus a renewal option for one year. If the renewal option for one year is exercised, the value of the contract will be increased to US$175.2m.
• Acquired in July 2007, KS Energy expects to take delivery of this rig in March 2008. The funding for the acquisition of the rig will come from a combination of debt financing and internal financial resources.
Best Regards,
Westcomb Research Team
Chartered Semiconductor: Reiterates 1Q08 guidance
Summary: Chartered Semiconductor has expectedly reiterated its 1Q08 guidance, where it expects revenue to grow 2-6% QoQ to US$361-373m, and achieve breakeven (+/- US$5m) at the bottomline (before accretion to preference shareholders). Chartered has also recently announced that it has entered into a deal to acquire a 100% stake in Hitachi Semiconductor Singapore for US$233m. The deal also comes with a manufacturing agreement with existing HNS customer Renesas Technology Corp to provide some US$250-300m worth of future wafer fab services, but Chartered expects the buy to be neutral to its FY08 earnings. Management will be providing more details on the HNS' revenue contribution during its 1Q08 results briefing scheduled on 25 April. As such, we are leaving our numbers largely unchanged. But our fair value eases to S$0.74 (still based on 1.1x FY08F NTA), given a weaker USD assumption. We also see downside risk over the next few months, given the uncertain US economic outlook and softening semicon industry picture. As such, we retain our HOLD rating and will review our numbers more closely after its 1Q08 results. (Carey Wong)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
Electrotech: Penang Plant Visit
Summary: We recently paid a visit to Electrotech Investments Limited (EIL) in Penang. EIL remains confident of expanding its Mechatronics and EMS business in Penang as management expects things to remain status quo i.e. still very business friendly, despite the recent change in state government. EIL runs its Mechatronics operations through Frencken Malaysia, which is not only an important internal support unit to the Frencken Group, but has also started to penetrate the Asian market on its own. As for its EMS business, EIL is in the process of changing its game plan. While EIL will retain Plastics as one of its core operations, it is working to reduce its dependency on its Keypad business. Instead, EIL wants to build up a critical mass of at least MYR100m in its OA (Office Automation) and AU (Automobile) businesses over the next two years to enhance long-term stability. However, this may come at the expense of short-term profit as EIL scales back its Keypad operations and retool some of the equipment for the OA and AU segment. EIL is sitting on a healthy cash hoard of S$44.0m, or S$0.14/share, which is more than adequate to fund its planned S$14m capex. We do not have a rating on the stock. (Carey Wong)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
Pacific Shipping Trust: Changing of the guard
Summary: Pacific Shipping Trust (PST) just announced that it has appointed Alvin Cheng, formerly from APL Logistics, as its CEO with effect from May 1. Incumbent Capt Subhangshu Dutt will return to PST parent Pacific International Lines (PIL) where he had worked for 18 years previously. According to the announcement, Mr Cheng has more than 20 years of working experience in corporate and investment banking and the shipping industries. Capt Dutt has had a long-standing relationship with sponsor PIL, which has aided the development of the trustee-manager and the trust since PST's 2006 IPO. However, the trustee-manager is still 100% owned by PIL, and PIL will continue to deal closely with the trust as a charterer and a key source of future acquisitions. Consequently, we anticipate no far-reaching effects from the move and reiterate our BUY rating and fair value of US$0.55. (Meenal Kumar)
NEWS HEADLINES
- The Al-Futtaim Group has upped its bid for Robinson & Co to S$7 per share from S$6.25 previously.
- The number of new homes sold by developers dropped to just 170 units in February, the lowest since the Urban Redevelopment Authority began releasing monthly sales data in June 2007.
- SIA CEO Chew Choon Seng said that jet fuel prices were likely to stay high in the foreseeable future, but the airline's efforts to upgrade to more fuel-efficient new-generation planes would help mitigate fuel costs.
- Singapore's non-oil domestic exports rose 7.3% YoY in February.
- The Monetary Authority of Singapore told Reuters that Singapore banks' current liquidity positions are sound.
- India's Bharti Airtel, an associate company of SingTel, said it does not expect to make any aggressive tariff cuts to maintain market share, and believes that the growth rate for new subscribers would be sustainable.
- Swiber has been awarded a contract from CUEL Ltd in Thailand that is tenable for five years and estimated to be worth US$50m per year.
- Under a new MOU, Novo Group will supply HG Metal with at least 156,000 tons of steel products per year, about 9% of Novo's reported steel supply.
- Sinopipe has secured a three-year US$15m loan from three banks in Singapore. The interest rate is set at 1.5% a year over and above the 3-month US$ Libor.
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
Electrotech: Penang Plant Visit
Summary: We recently paid a visit to Electrotech Investments Limited (EIL) in Penang. EIL remains confident of expanding its Mechatronics and EMS business in Penang as management expects things to remain status quo i.e. still very business friendly, despite the recent change in state government. EIL runs its Mechatronics operations through Frencken Malaysia, which is not only an important internal support unit to the Frencken Group, but has also started to penetrate the Asian market on its own. As for its EMS business, EIL is in the process of changing its game plan. While EIL will retain Plastics as one of its core operations, it is working to reduce its dependency on its Keypad business. Instead, EIL wants to build up a critical mass of at least MYR100m in its OA (Office Automation) and AU (Automobile) businesses over the next two years to enhance long-term stability. However, this may come at the expense of short-term profit as EIL scales back its Keypad operations and retool some of the equipment for the OA and AU segment. EIL is sitting on a healthy cash hoard of S$44.0m, or S$0.14/share, which is more than adequate to fund its planned S$14m capex. We do not have a rating on the stock. (Carey Wong)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
Pacific Shipping Trust: Changing of the guard
Summary: Pacific Shipping Trust (PST) just announced that it has appointed Alvin Cheng, formerly from APL Logistics, as its CEO with effect from May 1. Incumbent Capt Subhangshu Dutt will return to PST parent Pacific International Lines (PIL) where he had worked for 18 years previously. According to the announcement, Mr Cheng has more than 20 years of working experience in corporate and investment banking and the shipping industries. Capt Dutt has had a long-standing relationship with sponsor PIL, which has aided the development of the trustee-manager and the trust since PST's 2006 IPO. However, the trustee-manager is still 100% owned by PIL, and PIL will continue to deal closely with the trust as a charterer and a key source of future acquisitions. Consequently, we anticipate no far-reaching effects from the move and reiterate our BUY rating and fair value of US$0.55. (Meenal Kumar)
NEWS HEADLINES
- The Al-Futtaim Group has upped its bid for Robinson & Co to S$7 per share from S$6.25 previously.
- The number of new homes sold by developers dropped to just 170 units in February, the lowest since the Urban Redevelopment Authority began releasing monthly sales data in June 2007.
- SIA CEO Chew Choon Seng said that jet fuel prices were likely to stay high in the foreseeable future, but the airline's efforts to upgrade to more fuel-efficient new-generation planes would help mitigate fuel costs.
- Singapore's non-oil domestic exports rose 7.3% YoY in February.
- The Monetary Authority of Singapore told Reuters that Singapore banks' current liquidity positions are sound.
- India's Bharti Airtel, an associate company of SingTel, said it does not expect to make any aggressive tariff cuts to maintain market share, and believes that the growth rate for new subscribers would be sustainable.
- Swiber has been awarded a contract from CUEL Ltd in Thailand that is tenable for five years and estimated to be worth US$50m per year.
- Under a new MOU, Novo Group will supply HG Metal with at least 156,000 tons of steel products per year, about 9% of Novo's reported steel supply.
- Sinopipe has secured a three-year US$15m loan from three banks in Singapore. The interest rate is set at 1.5% a year over and above the 3-month US$ Libor.
What's on the table
Ascott Residence Trust (S$1.26) ? Initiating coverage - In all the
right places
ART is a serviced residence real estate investment trust focusing on
serviced residences and rental housing markets
in Asia. The length of stay at ART's properties is above the industry
average, given ART's target market of business
and leisure travellers, as well as residential tenants. This largely
reduces the earnings fluctuations commonly seen
in the short-stay hospitality sector. ART is poised for growth via
acquisitions and growth in revenue per available
unit (REVPAU) from 2008 to 2010. We expect ART to acquire S$400m of
properties in 2008, to reach a target portfolio
of S$2bn by end-2008. In addition, its REVPAU is expected to increase
by 3-8% across the region from 2008 to 2010.
On this basis, we forecast a DPU CAGR of 9% for 2008-10. We initiate
coverage on Ascott Residence Trust with
Outperform and DDM-derived valuation of S$1.74. We arrive at our target
price of S$1.74 using DDM valuation
(discount rate at 8.4%, terminal growth rate at 3%). This represents a
total return of 45% from a forward yield of
6.5% in FY08 and potential price upside of 38%.
News of the Day
* Fed's emergency moves fail to quell Asian fears
* New home sales slump to 9-month low in Feb
* Al-Futtaim raises offer for Robinson to $7 a share
* Swiber clinches five-year contract worth US$250m
* Jet fuel prices set to stay high: SIA chief
* Bharti does not plan to make steep tariff cuts
* Anwell wins Blu-Ray manufacturing deal in Hong Kong
* Novo, HG Metal in MOU on steel supply
* DBS rolls out deal for social enterprises
Trading Ideas
* Fibrechem Technologies
right places
ART is a serviced residence real estate investment trust focusing on
serviced residences and rental housing markets
in Asia. The length of stay at ART's properties is above the industry
average, given ART's target market of business
and leisure travellers, as well as residential tenants. This largely
reduces the earnings fluctuations commonly seen
in the short-stay hospitality sector. ART is poised for growth via
acquisitions and growth in revenue per available
unit (REVPAU) from 2008 to 2010. We expect ART to acquire S$400m of
properties in 2008, to reach a target portfolio
of S$2bn by end-2008. In addition, its REVPAU is expected to increase
by 3-8% across the region from 2008 to 2010.
On this basis, we forecast a DPU CAGR of 9% for 2008-10. We initiate
coverage on Ascott Residence Trust with
Outperform and DDM-derived valuation of S$1.74. We arrive at our target
price of S$1.74 using DDM valuation
(discount rate at 8.4%, terminal growth rate at 3%). This represents a
total return of 45% from a forward yield of
6.5% in FY08 and potential price upside of 38%.
News of the Day
* Fed's emergency moves fail to quell Asian fears
* New home sales slump to 9-month low in Feb
* Al-Futtaim raises offer for Robinson to $7 a share
* Swiber clinches five-year contract worth US$250m
* Jet fuel prices set to stay high: SIA chief
* Bharti does not plan to make steep tariff cuts
* Anwell wins Blu-Ray manufacturing deal in Hong Kong
* Novo, HG Metal in MOU on steel supply
* DBS rolls out deal for social enterprises
Trading Ideas
* Fibrechem Technologies
Jackspeed Corporation: Aviation certification plans on track
Summary: Jackspeed Corporation's (JS) aviation certification progress for the FAR 145 certification is on track, and management is targeting to obtain the certification within 6 months. We believe this certification should aid in enhancing its technical competency and could translate into better sales. Meanwhile, Thailand is on its way to reaching the 2m automotive units production target, at which Thailand will move up from its current 14th place ranking to become one of the top 10 auto manufacturing countries in the world. Thailand's growing auto assembly facilities and a large export and domestic auto market also present opportunities for Jackspeed's parts/accessories business in Thailand. In view of the still healthy macro environment for Thailand's auto industry and together with Jackspeed's growing technical expertise in the aviation business, we are maintaining our fair value of S$0.26 and reiterate our BUY rating. (Selena Leong)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
NEWS HEADLINES
- J.P. Morgan agreed to buy Bear Stearns for US$2 a share in a stock-swap transaction. The deal values Bear Stearns at just US$236m, while its stock-market value on Friday was about $3.54b.
- CapitaCommercial Trust has issued S$150m of fixed rate notes due in 2010, under the S$1b multi-currency medium-term note program established last year.
- A consortium involving a Midas JV has secured a RMB550.4m contract to supply metro train cars. Midas has a 32.5% stake in the JV.
- Singapore's retail sales rose 7.8% YoY in January, but only 1.5% after adjusting for inflation.
- Centraland said its 2007 net profit fell 9.4% YoY to RMB41m as higher costs offset the 5.6% rise in revenue to RMB292m.
- Beyonics Tech posted a 23.3% YoY drop in 2Q net profit to S$3.9m despite a 27.2% increase in revenue to S$255m.
- Popular Holdings saw higher expenses eat into its 3Q net profit, which fell 8.2% to S$8.9m.
- SNF Corp's net losses widened in FY07 to S$2.95m, up from S$769k in the previous year. The group said it expects its operating environment to remain challenging, citing the weakening USD, volatile oil prices and the uncertainty of the global economy.
- Tri-M Tech, which is on the SGX watchlist, said it has entered into an MOU to fully acquire Kingworld Resources, which is in the oil exploration and production business.
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
NEWS HEADLINES
- J.P. Morgan agreed to buy Bear Stearns for US$2 a share in a stock-swap transaction. The deal values Bear Stearns at just US$236m, while its stock-market value on Friday was about $3.54b.
- CapitaCommercial Trust has issued S$150m of fixed rate notes due in 2010, under the S$1b multi-currency medium-term note program established last year.
- A consortium involving a Midas JV has secured a RMB550.4m contract to supply metro train cars. Midas has a 32.5% stake in the JV.
- Singapore's retail sales rose 7.8% YoY in January, but only 1.5% after adjusting for inflation.
- Centraland said its 2007 net profit fell 9.4% YoY to RMB41m as higher costs offset the 5.6% rise in revenue to RMB292m.
- Beyonics Tech posted a 23.3% YoY drop in 2Q net profit to S$3.9m despite a 27.2% increase in revenue to S$255m.
- Popular Holdings saw higher expenses eat into its 3Q net profit, which fell 8.2% to S$8.9m.
- SNF Corp's net losses widened in FY07 to S$2.95m, up from S$769k in the previous year. The group said it expects its operating environment to remain challenging, citing the weakening USD, volatile oil prices and the uncertainty of the global economy.
- Tri-M Tech, which is on the SGX watchlist, said it has entered into an MOU to fully acquire Kingworld Resources, which is in the oil exploration and production business.
Telecommunications Sector - Robust fundamentals remain underappreciated
We expect Singapore telcos to continue to outperform the STI in view of
an extended period of market risk aversion.
The sector offers robust free cash flows and the three telcos remain
below their targeted capital structures. This
is supportive of attractive yields of 4.5-10%. 2008 growth is expected
to be topline-driven on strong telco service
consumption. Margins are expected to be stable as competition
approaches a new equilibrium. In addition, we believe
concerns over risks from mobile number portability and the
Next-Generation Broadband Network are overdone. Maintain
Overweight with StarHub as our top pick, followed by SingTel and M1.
StarHub offers outstanding ARPU growth
potential with a robust yield of 10% while SingTel offers subscriber
share growth with a yield of 4.5%. M1 lacks
catalysts but offers a yield of 8%.
Quick Takes
* Global Equity Technicals - Building up to a "selling climax"
News of the Day
* Fed Cuts Discount Rate to 3.25%; Announces New Lending
Facility
* Convertible bond issues jump as stocks retreat
* HK houses going for HK$300m
* Stocks slide hits market for IPOs
* CCT MTN issues $150m fixed rate notes due 2010
Trading Ideas
* STI Weekly Outlook
an extended period of market risk aversion.
The sector offers robust free cash flows and the three telcos remain
below their targeted capital structures. This
is supportive of attractive yields of 4.5-10%. 2008 growth is expected
to be topline-driven on strong telco service
consumption. Margins are expected to be stable as competition
approaches a new equilibrium. In addition, we believe
concerns over risks from mobile number portability and the
Next-Generation Broadband Network are overdone. Maintain
Overweight with StarHub as our top pick, followed by SingTel and M1.
StarHub offers outstanding ARPU growth
potential with a robust yield of 10% while SingTel offers subscriber
share growth with a yield of 4.5%. M1 lacks
catalysts but offers a yield of 8%.
Quick Takes
* Global Equity Technicals - Building up to a "selling climax"
News of the Day
* Fed Cuts Discount Rate to 3.25%; Announces New Lending
Facility
* Convertible bond issues jump as stocks retreat
* HK houses going for HK$300m
* Stocks slide hits market for IPOs
* CCT MTN issues $150m fixed rate notes due 2010
Trading Ideas
* STI Weekly Outlook
JPMorgan Chase & Co. agreed to buy Bear Stearns Cos
March 16 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. agreed to buy
Bear Stearns Cos. for about $270 million after a run on the
company ended 85 years of independence for Wall Street's fifth-
largest securities firm and prompted a bailout by the Federal
Reserve.
The deal values New York-based Bear Stearns, with 14,000
employees, at $2 a share, compared with $30 at the close on
March 14. The central bank will provide financing for the
transaction, including support for as much as $30 billion of
Bear Stearns's ``less-liquid assets,'' the two companies said in
a statement today.
JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon had the upper
hand in negotiations after coming to the smaller firm's rescue
last week with a cash infusion engineered by the Federal Reserve
Bank of New York. Bear Stearns's CEO, Alan Schwartz, faced the
prospect of bankruptcy as clients pulled $17 billion in two days
last week and creditors stopped renewing loans.
``JPMorgan Chase stands behind Bear Stearns,'' Dimon said
in the statement. ``Bear Stearns's clients and counterparties
should feel secure that JPMorgan is guaranteeing Bear Stearns's
counterparty risk. We welcome their clients, counterparties and
employees to our firm, and we are glad to be their partner.''
Bear Stearns's sale to JPMorgan caps an eight-month slide
in the company's fortunes that began last July with the collapse
of two of its hedge funds. Those failures sparked a wider market
concern that called into doubt the value of any asset linked to
the mortgage market, Bear Stearns's biggest business.
Market Deterioration
Without a resolution this weekend, the situation would
probably have continued to deteriorate when markets resumed
trading tomorrow, according to analysts and investors including
Cambiar Investors LLC's Brian Barish.
``The past week has been an incredibly difficult time,''
Schwartz said in the statement. ``This transaction represents
the best outcome for all of our constituencies based upon the
current circumstances.''
The Fed's rescue attempt last week failed to avert a crisis
of confidence among Bear Stearns's customers and shareholders,
who drove the stock down a record 47 percent after the cash
infusion was announced.
Bear Stearns's profit exceeded $2 billion in 2006, yet the
price JPMorgan is paying is about one quarter the value of the
securities firm's headquarters building in midtown Manhattan.
The 1.2 million-square-foot, 45-story structure built in 2001 is
worth about $1.2 billion, based on the average $1,000 per-
square-foot that comparable office space in the city is
currently fetching.
Counterparty Risk
``If you're buying equity for free and the liabilities are
pretty well capped, it sounds like it's good for JPMorgan
shareholders,'' said Ben Wallace, who helps manage $800 million,
including shares of JPMorgan, at Grimes & Co. in Westborough,
Massachusetts. ``The thing that everybody's been worried about
has been the counterparty risk and if this gives people more
confidence, that will be good for the markets.''
Bear Stearns's prime brokerage unit, which provides loans
and processes trades for hedge funds, generated $1.2 billion in
revenue last year. That business is probably the only piece left
of the company with value after the mortgage market collapsed
last year, analysts have said.
The prime brokerage was the third-largest behind Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley as of April 2007, according
to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. About a sixth of the firm's income
came from packaging and trading mortgage bonds, a market that
has been almost completely frozen since July.
`A Lot of Value'
``As bad as things are at Bear Stearns, this is still a
franchise with a lot of value, particularly the prime brokerage
business, which is what JPMorgan is after,'' said William
Fitzpatrick, who helps manage $1.6 billion at Optique Capital
Management, including JPMorgan shares. ``That's the crown jewel,
and that would fit into JPMorgan's business extremely well.''
Dimon's New York-based firm has suffered fewer losses than
rivals during the credit-market contraction, which has prompted
$195 billion of writedowns and losses by Wall Streets biggest
banks and securities firms.
JPMorgan, the third-largest U.S. bank by assets, has posted
$3.7 billion in writedowns, a fraction of the $22.4 billion
reported by New York-based Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S.
bank.
Crisis of Confidence
``It'll be perceived as a positive for the markets,'' said
E. William Stone, who oversees $77 billion as chief investment
strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. ``It puts a
floor under all the financials. The longer-term thesis is that
the Fed won't let good companies fail based on lack of liquidity
and a crisis of confidence.''
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson defended the Fed's bailout
today, saying policy makers will do whatever is needed to
prevent disruptions in financial markets from hurting the
economy. Paulson said he was involved with the discussions on
Bear Stearns's future this weekend, without elaborating.
``There's always a decision to be made to say what's best
for the stability of the marketplace, the orderliness of the
marketplace,'' Paulson said. ``I think we made the right
decision.''
Bear Stearns, founded in 1923, survived the Great
Depression and first sold shares to the public in 1985.
Schwartz, an executive with more than 30 years of experience at
Bear Stearns, was the hand-picked choice of his predecessor,
James ``Jimmy'' Cayne, 74, who remains non-executive chairman of
the firm.
Bridge Game
Cayne stepped down after reporting an $854 million fourth-
quarter loss, the first in the company's history. He was at a
bridge tournament in Detroit last week as the firm faced
speculation about its cash position. Cayne came under fire last
July for playing golf and bridge while the hedge funds
collapsed.
On a conference call with analysts and investors after the
bailout announcement on March 14, Schwartz said the company's
book value was ``fundamentally'' unchanged. Clients continued to
withdraw funds, he said. The book value was about $80 a share at
the end of November.
When Bear Stearns invited potential buyers for detailed
presentations by department chiefs yesterday, only JPMorgan and
private equity firm J.C. Flowers & Co. showed up, according to
people familiar with the talks.
Other Buyers
Other potential buyers, such as Royal Bank of Scotland
Group Plc and HSBC Holdings Plc, which had expressed interest in
the past, didn't send representatives. Hundreds of Bear Stearns
employees went to work yesterday to help with the sale process
and the presentations.
Bear Stearns has offices in cities including London, Tokyo,
Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Singapore, Milan and Sao Paulo,
according to its Web site.
Joseph Lewis, the second-largest shareholder in Bear
Stearns Cos., wasn't planning to reduce his stake, a person
close to him said March 11. Lewis, a 71-year-old billionaire,
has put in more than $1 billion into the firm since September,
paying as much as $150 for a share.
JPMorgan's participation in the bailout follows a long
tradition at the bank of stepping in to rescue financial markets
from crisis, according to Charles Geisst, the author of ``100
Years on Wall Street.''
The bank has also profited from others' crises. JPMorgan
got at least $725 million of revenue for taking on half the
energy trades from collapsed hedge fund Amaranth Advisors LLC in
2006.
Bear Stearns Cos. for about $270 million after a run on the
company ended 85 years of independence for Wall Street's fifth-
largest securities firm and prompted a bailout by the Federal
Reserve.
The deal values New York-based Bear Stearns, with 14,000
employees, at $2 a share, compared with $30 at the close on
March 14. The central bank will provide financing for the
transaction, including support for as much as $30 billion of
Bear Stearns's ``less-liquid assets,'' the two companies said in
a statement today.
JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon had the upper
hand in negotiations after coming to the smaller firm's rescue
last week with a cash infusion engineered by the Federal Reserve
Bank of New York. Bear Stearns's CEO, Alan Schwartz, faced the
prospect of bankruptcy as clients pulled $17 billion in two days
last week and creditors stopped renewing loans.
``JPMorgan Chase stands behind Bear Stearns,'' Dimon said
in the statement. ``Bear Stearns's clients and counterparties
should feel secure that JPMorgan is guaranteeing Bear Stearns's
counterparty risk. We welcome their clients, counterparties and
employees to our firm, and we are glad to be their partner.''
Bear Stearns's sale to JPMorgan caps an eight-month slide
in the company's fortunes that began last July with the collapse
of two of its hedge funds. Those failures sparked a wider market
concern that called into doubt the value of any asset linked to
the mortgage market, Bear Stearns's biggest business.
Market Deterioration
Without a resolution this weekend, the situation would
probably have continued to deteriorate when markets resumed
trading tomorrow, according to analysts and investors including
Cambiar Investors LLC's Brian Barish.
``The past week has been an incredibly difficult time,''
Schwartz said in the statement. ``This transaction represents
the best outcome for all of our constituencies based upon the
current circumstances.''
The Fed's rescue attempt last week failed to avert a crisis
of confidence among Bear Stearns's customers and shareholders,
who drove the stock down a record 47 percent after the cash
infusion was announced.
Bear Stearns's profit exceeded $2 billion in 2006, yet the
price JPMorgan is paying is about one quarter the value of the
securities firm's headquarters building in midtown Manhattan.
The 1.2 million-square-foot, 45-story structure built in 2001 is
worth about $1.2 billion, based on the average $1,000 per-
square-foot that comparable office space in the city is
currently fetching.
Counterparty Risk
``If you're buying equity for free and the liabilities are
pretty well capped, it sounds like it's good for JPMorgan
shareholders,'' said Ben Wallace, who helps manage $800 million,
including shares of JPMorgan, at Grimes & Co. in Westborough,
Massachusetts. ``The thing that everybody's been worried about
has been the counterparty risk and if this gives people more
confidence, that will be good for the markets.''
Bear Stearns's prime brokerage unit, which provides loans
and processes trades for hedge funds, generated $1.2 billion in
revenue last year. That business is probably the only piece left
of the company with value after the mortgage market collapsed
last year, analysts have said.
The prime brokerage was the third-largest behind Goldman
Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley as of April 2007, according
to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. About a sixth of the firm's income
came from packaging and trading mortgage bonds, a market that
has been almost completely frozen since July.
`A Lot of Value'
``As bad as things are at Bear Stearns, this is still a
franchise with a lot of value, particularly the prime brokerage
business, which is what JPMorgan is after,'' said William
Fitzpatrick, who helps manage $1.6 billion at Optique Capital
Management, including JPMorgan shares. ``That's the crown jewel,
and that would fit into JPMorgan's business extremely well.''
Dimon's New York-based firm has suffered fewer losses than
rivals during the credit-market contraction, which has prompted
$195 billion of writedowns and losses by Wall Streets biggest
banks and securities firms.
JPMorgan, the third-largest U.S. bank by assets, has posted
$3.7 billion in writedowns, a fraction of the $22.4 billion
reported by New York-based Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S.
bank.
Crisis of Confidence
``It'll be perceived as a positive for the markets,'' said
E. William Stone, who oversees $77 billion as chief investment
strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. ``It puts a
floor under all the financials. The longer-term thesis is that
the Fed won't let good companies fail based on lack of liquidity
and a crisis of confidence.''
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson defended the Fed's bailout
today, saying policy makers will do whatever is needed to
prevent disruptions in financial markets from hurting the
economy. Paulson said he was involved with the discussions on
Bear Stearns's future this weekend, without elaborating.
``There's always a decision to be made to say what's best
for the stability of the marketplace, the orderliness of the
marketplace,'' Paulson said. ``I think we made the right
decision.''
Bear Stearns, founded in 1923, survived the Great
Depression and first sold shares to the public in 1985.
Schwartz, an executive with more than 30 years of experience at
Bear Stearns, was the hand-picked choice of his predecessor,
James ``Jimmy'' Cayne, 74, who remains non-executive chairman of
the firm.
Bridge Game
Cayne stepped down after reporting an $854 million fourth-
quarter loss, the first in the company's history. He was at a
bridge tournament in Detroit last week as the firm faced
speculation about its cash position. Cayne came under fire last
July for playing golf and bridge while the hedge funds
collapsed.
On a conference call with analysts and investors after the
bailout announcement on March 14, Schwartz said the company's
book value was ``fundamentally'' unchanged. Clients continued to
withdraw funds, he said. The book value was about $80 a share at
the end of November.
When Bear Stearns invited potential buyers for detailed
presentations by department chiefs yesterday, only JPMorgan and
private equity firm J.C. Flowers & Co. showed up, according to
people familiar with the talks.
Other Buyers
Other potential buyers, such as Royal Bank of Scotland
Group Plc and HSBC Holdings Plc, which had expressed interest in
the past, didn't send representatives. Hundreds of Bear Stearns
employees went to work yesterday to help with the sale process
and the presentations.
Bear Stearns has offices in cities including London, Tokyo,
Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Singapore, Milan and Sao Paulo,
according to its Web site.
Joseph Lewis, the second-largest shareholder in Bear
Stearns Cos., wasn't planning to reduce his stake, a person
close to him said March 11. Lewis, a 71-year-old billionaire,
has put in more than $1 billion into the firm since September,
paying as much as $150 for a share.
JPMorgan's participation in the bailout follows a long
tradition at the bank of stepping in to rescue financial markets
from crisis, according to Charles Geisst, the author of ``100
Years on Wall Street.''
The bank has also profited from others' crises. JPMorgan
got at least $725 million of revenue for taking on half the
energy trades from collapsed hedge fund Amaranth Advisors LLC in
2006.
REITs Defensive amidst turbulent times
Since 2H07, credit concerns and a US-led slowdown have cast a pall over the
market, both globally and domestically. To tide over this period, we
suggest investors take a look at the S-REIT counters, given their earnings
visibility, attractive yields and prospect of positive rental reversions.
With the 10-year SGS bond currently offering an all-time low of 2.08% and
S-REITs trading at a decent average yield of 6.4%, we believe that
investors should begin to place emphasis on the sector. Our key
recommendations are Suntec REIT, Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Cambridge
Industrial Trust.
market, both globally and domestically. To tide over this period, we
suggest investors take a look at the S-REIT counters, given their earnings
visibility, attractive yields and prospect of positive rental reversions.
With the 10-year SGS bond currently offering an all-time low of 2.08% and
S-REITs trading at a decent average yield of 6.4%, we believe that
investors should begin to place emphasis on the sector. Our key
recommendations are Suntec REIT, Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Cambridge
Industrial Trust.
HONG KONG (Standard & Poor''s) March 17, 2008
Standard & Poor''s Ratings
Services today lowered its ratings on 14 tranches of two Asia-Pacific cash
flow CDO of ABS transactions; Raffles Place II Funding Ltd. and Singa
Funding Ltd. (see list).
The total issuance amount of the 14 downgraded tranches is approximately US$2 billion.
All lowered tranche ratings were on CreditWatch with negative implications
prior to today''s rating actions. The actions on the CDO ratings were taken
as a result of credit deterioration in the underlying CDO portfolios, which
consist primarily of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed
by U.S. mortgages and of tranches from other CDO transactions.
Today''s CDO downgrades reflect a number of factors, including credit
deterioration and recent negative rating actions on U.S. subprime RMBS
securities (see "S&P Takes Action On 6,389 U.S. Subprime RMBS Ratings And
1,953 CDO Ratings," published Jan. 30, 2008, on RatingsDirect). They also
reflect changes that Standard & Poor''s has made to the recovery rate and
correlation assumptions it uses to assess U.S. RMBS held within CDO
collateral pools (see "Correlation And Recovery Assumptions Revised For
CDOs Of ABS Backed By RMBS," published Feb. 4, 2008, on RatingsDirect).
Standard & Poor''s will continue to monitor the CDO transactions it rates
and take rating actions when appropriate. Additionally, Standard & Poor''s
will continue to review its current criteria assumptions in light of the
recent performance of RMBS assets and CDOs. For information on Standard &
Poor''s residential mortgage-related rating actions on U.S. CDO
transactions, please visit RatingsDirect at www.ratingsdirect.com or
www.spviews.com, which is Standard & Poor''s special website for subprime
related issues. Transaction Class Rating to From Raffles Place II Funding
Ltd. A-1M CCC AAA/Watch Neg Raffles Place II Funding Ltd. A-1Q CCC
AAA/Watch Neg Raffles Place II Funding Ltd. A-2 CCC- AAA/Watch Neg Raffles
Place II Funding Ltd. A-3 CC AAA/Watch Neg Raffles Place II Funding Ltd.
A-4 CC A+/Watch Neg Raffles Place II Funding Ltd. B CC BBB/Watch Neg
Raffles Place II Funding Ltd. C1 CC BBB-/Watch Neg Raffles Place II Funding
Ltd. C2 CC BB/Watch Neg Singa Funding Ltd. A-1M CCC AAA/Watch Neg Singa
Funding Ltd. A-1Q CCC AAA/Watch Neg Singa Funding Ltd. A-2 CCC- AAA/Watch
Neg Singa Funding Ltd. A-3 CC AA-/Watch Neg Singa Funding Ltd. A-4 CC
A-/Watch Neg Singa Funding Ltd. B CC BBB-/Watch Neg
Ratings are statements of opinion, not statements of fact or
recommendations to buy, hold, or sell any securities. Standard & Poor''s
(Australia) Pty. Ltd. does not hold an Australian financial services
license under the Corporations Act 2001. Any rating and the information
contained in any research report published by Standard & Poor''s is of a
general nature. It has been prepared without taking into account any
recipient''s
Services today lowered its ratings on 14 tranches of two Asia-Pacific cash
flow CDO of ABS transactions; Raffles Place II Funding Ltd. and Singa
Funding Ltd. (see list).
The total issuance amount of the 14 downgraded tranches is approximately US$2 billion.
All lowered tranche ratings were on CreditWatch with negative implications
prior to today''s rating actions. The actions on the CDO ratings were taken
as a result of credit deterioration in the underlying CDO portfolios, which
consist primarily of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed
by U.S. mortgages and of tranches from other CDO transactions.
Today''s CDO downgrades reflect a number of factors, including credit
deterioration and recent negative rating actions on U.S. subprime RMBS
securities (see "S&P Takes Action On 6,389 U.S. Subprime RMBS Ratings And
1,953 CDO Ratings," published Jan. 30, 2008, on RatingsDirect). They also
reflect changes that Standard & Poor''s has made to the recovery rate and
correlation assumptions it uses to assess U.S. RMBS held within CDO
collateral pools (see "Correlation And Recovery Assumptions Revised For
CDOs Of ABS Backed By RMBS," published Feb. 4, 2008, on RatingsDirect).
Standard & Poor''s will continue to monitor the CDO transactions it rates
and take rating actions when appropriate. Additionally, Standard & Poor''s
will continue to review its current criteria assumptions in light of the
recent performance of RMBS assets and CDOs. For information on Standard &
Poor''s residential mortgage-related rating actions on U.S. CDO
transactions, please visit RatingsDirect at www.ratingsdirect.com or
www.spviews.com, which is Standard & Poor''s special website for subprime
related issues. Transaction Class Rating to From Raffles Place II Funding
Ltd. A-1M CCC AAA/Watch Neg Raffles Place II Funding Ltd. A-1Q CCC
AAA/Watch Neg Raffles Place II Funding Ltd. A-2 CCC- AAA/Watch Neg Raffles
Place II Funding Ltd. A-3 CC AAA/Watch Neg Raffles Place II Funding Ltd.
A-4 CC A+/Watch Neg Raffles Place II Funding Ltd. B CC BBB/Watch Neg
Raffles Place II Funding Ltd. C1 CC BBB-/Watch Neg Raffles Place II Funding
Ltd. C2 CC BB/Watch Neg Singa Funding Ltd. A-1M CCC AAA/Watch Neg Singa
Funding Ltd. A-1Q CCC AAA/Watch Neg Singa Funding Ltd. A-2 CCC- AAA/Watch
Neg Singa Funding Ltd. A-3 CC AA-/Watch Neg Singa Funding Ltd. A-4 CC
A-/Watch Neg Singa Funding Ltd. B CC BBB-/Watch Neg
Ratings are statements of opinion, not statements of fact or
recommendations to buy, hold, or sell any securities. Standard & Poor''s
(Australia) Pty. Ltd. does not hold an Australian financial services
license under the Corporations Act 2001. Any rating and the information
contained in any research report published by Standard & Poor''s is of a
general nature. It has been prepared without taking into account any
recipient''s
Miyoshi Precision: Overall HDD outlook still positive
Summary: We met up with Miyoshi Precision Limited (MPL) recently for an update and was told that its HDD business outlook remains modestly positive, still buoyed by good order flows from major customers Hitachi GST (HGST) and Fujitsu. HGST further expects Asia to feature prominently in its 2008 road map but MPL is not going to enjoy the full benefit of HGST's ramp up, given the delay in its new China factory. Separately, further weakness in the USD could result in lower reported SGD sales figures as well a lower gross margin as 40% of its COGS have USD exposure. Due to the weak USD trend and delay in its China plant, we have pared our FY08 estimates for revenue by 4.9% and earnings by 18.6%. We have also reduced our valuation from 9x FY08F to 8x to reflect a more cautious market outlook. Together, this eases our fair value from S$0.325 to S$0.265. However, we remain upbeat about MPL's prospects in the HDD industry and hence keep our BUY rating. (
Koda - Rolling along the Fairway
Summary: We attended the annual International Furniture Fair Singapore 2008 at Expo this week, where international furniture wholesalers including Koda Ltd (Koda) showcased their products to global furniture buyers. Besides Singapore, Koda's road show extends to Malaysia, Vietnam and China. Management revealed that it received strong orders during the Furniture Fair this year, and in particular, its subsidiary Rossano saw a doubling of orders from last year. By pricing its products at a discount to Koda's, Rossano has been able to complement Koda's product range and has captured a new target market. Koda's key edge over its peers lies in the virtue of its low cost production base in Vietnam, where labour, rental and operating costs are cheaper than those in China. We are retaining our estimates for now, pending clarity on size of orders clinched from Koda's ongoing series of furniture fairs. Our rating remains a BUY, with a fair value estimate of S$1.01
Koda - Rolling along the Fairway
Summary: We attended the annual International Furniture Fair Singapore 2008 at Expo this week, where international furniture wholesalers including Koda Ltd (Koda) showcased their products to global furniture buyers. Besides Singapore, Koda's road show extends to Malaysia, Vietnam and China. Management revealed that it received strong orders during the Furniture Fair this year, and in particular, its subsidiary Rossano saw a doubling of orders from last year. By pricing its products at a discount to Koda's, Rossano has been able to complement Koda's product range and has captured a new target market. Koda's key edge over its peers lies in the virtue of its low cost production base in Vietnam, where labour, rental and operating costs are cheaper than those in China. We are retaining our estimates for now, pending clarity on size of orders clinched from Koda's ongoing series of furniture fairs. Our rating remains a BUY, with a fair value estimate of S$1.01
USD/JPY's decline may accelerate below 100
* USD/JPY has declined to around 100
* Although we maintain our USD/JPY target at 98 end-March, risks are
that
USD/JPY could slip well beyond 98
* EUR/JPY and Japanese exporters are the key
* Intervention is still unlikely
* Although we maintain our USD/JPY target at 98 end-March, risks are
that
USD/JPY could slip well beyond 98
* EUR/JPY and Japanese exporters are the key
* Intervention is still unlikely
First Resources; BUY (Upgrade from Hold) S$0.95; Bloomberg: FR SP
Uncertainties removed
Price Target : 12-month S$ 2.00 (Prev S$1.55)
By: Singapore Research Team +65 6533 9688
Story: First Resources has lodged an announcement with SGX today regarding
Indonesian news media reports on a press conference held by the Indonesian
Corruption Eradiation Commission (KPK) last night. In the press conference,
KPK was reported to have announced that the financial penalty of
approximately US$38.2 million to Mr. Martias in a separate corruption case,
had been fully paid; and that KPK would withdraw its intention to auction
off 19 properties (three of which belonging to First Resources) that it had
deemed to be belonging to or related to Martias.
Point: In a conference call today, Mr. Ciliandra Fangiono, First Resources
CEO, stated that there was no financial assistance given to Mr. Martias in
regards to the settlement and that as far as the Supreme Court judgment and
penalties go, "all the boxes have been ticked". An official announcement of
the KPK is expected to be published in Indonesian newspapers by tomorrow.
Relevance: Given this announcement, we believe uncertainties on the stock
have been removed. We have therefore upgraded our recommendation on the
stock to Buy from Hold and reinstated our target price to S$2.00 from
S$1.55.
Price Target : 12-month S$ 2.00 (Prev S$1.55)
By: Singapore Research Team +65 6533 9688
Story: First Resources has lodged an announcement with SGX today regarding
Indonesian news media reports on a press conference held by the Indonesian
Corruption Eradiation Commission (KPK) last night. In the press conference,
KPK was reported to have announced that the financial penalty of
approximately US$38.2 million to Mr. Martias in a separate corruption case,
had been fully paid; and that KPK would withdraw its intention to auction
off 19 properties (three of which belonging to First Resources) that it had
deemed to be belonging to or related to Martias.
Point: In a conference call today, Mr. Ciliandra Fangiono, First Resources
CEO, stated that there was no financial assistance given to Mr. Martias in
regards to the settlement and that as far as the Supreme Court judgment and
penalties go, "all the boxes have been ticked". An official announcement of
the KPK is expected to be published in Indonesian newspapers by tomorrow.
Relevance: Given this announcement, we believe uncertainties on the stock
have been removed. We have therefore upgraded our recommendation on the
stock to Buy from Hold and reinstated our target price to S$2.00 from
S$1.55.
LottVision LottVisionStock remains highly speculative
3Q results. LottVision reported 3Q turnover of HK$1.2m (+1% yoy) and net profit of HK$24.4m. The net profit was due mainly to other net income of HK$45.4m. This included realised investment gain of HK$76.2m on disposal of 20% of PAL Development Ltd (PAL), which was offset by HK$32.0m goodwill impairment in the surveillance business arising from the shift of business focus of LottVision
SembCorp Marine Ltd (SMM SP/ SCMN.SI, OUTPERFORM- Upgraded, S$3.28 - Target: S$4.58)
Quick takes - The coast is clear SembMarine has reached a settlement for US$208.7m with nine out of 11 banks involved in its earlier unauthorised forex transactions. This will be expensed in 4Q07. Our FY07 core earnings estimate has been cut by 45%. We believe the forex overhang should be lifted given that 80% of the amount has been expensed off. A strong net order book of S$6bn and positive order flow should continue to drive earnings till 2010. Our target price, still based on blended valuations, has been reduced from S$5.00 to S$4.58 as we lower our P/E target from 22x to 18x to reflect a mid-cycle valuation for the O&M industry and lower investor risk appetite. However, with the settlement of the forex debacle and restoration of investors' confidence, as well as upside potential of 39%, we upgrade the stock from Neutral to Outperform.
Swiber Holdings Yet another contract extension
Story: Swiber repays our faith in its ability to win new orders with a new
Letter of Intent (LOI) to transport and instal three pipelines off the
coast of Indonesia. This project is worth US$35m. Swiber will start work on
the new contract in the second quarter and expected to be completed by end
2008.
Point: This is yet another contract extension in the past two months and we
think there are three points worth noting. First, Swiber has now firmly
gotten two oil majors as its recurring customer base, including Brunei
Shell, which we believe is crucial in ensuring a steady stream of larger
contracts to feed its enlarged capability. Indeed, this latest LOI is an
extension of an earlier order won in November 2007 from the same unnamed
oil major, and the combined orders won to-date from this customer is about
US$66m.
Secondly, we reckon that Swiber's execution risk with regard to successful
bids for new orders and execution of contracts is now lower as compared to
mid-2007. Swiber's record US$320m new orders win in 2007, and the two
recent contract extensions from the unnamed oil major and Brunei Shell -
who are known to have strict safety and technical requirements - support
this point.
Thirdly, we continue to believe that with two oil majors as its new
customers, it may result in a snowballing effect in attracting other oil
majors to come on board as Swiber's clients in Asia Pacific. As such, we
believe our new orders win assumption of US$400m in 2008 is achievable.
Relevance: Our fair value stays at S$3.49, using 15x FY08 PE. We expect the
contracts flow momentum to be strong through the rest of 1Q 2008, providing
price catalysts to the counter. Maintain BUY.
Letter of Intent (LOI) to transport and instal three pipelines off the
coast of Indonesia. This project is worth US$35m. Swiber will start work on
the new contract in the second quarter and expected to be completed by end
2008.
Point: This is yet another contract extension in the past two months and we
think there are three points worth noting. First, Swiber has now firmly
gotten two oil majors as its recurring customer base, including Brunei
Shell, which we believe is crucial in ensuring a steady stream of larger
contracts to feed its enlarged capability. Indeed, this latest LOI is an
extension of an earlier order won in November 2007 from the same unnamed
oil major, and the combined orders won to-date from this customer is about
US$66m.
Secondly, we reckon that Swiber's execution risk with regard to successful
bids for new orders and execution of contracts is now lower as compared to
mid-2007. Swiber's record US$320m new orders win in 2007, and the two
recent contract extensions from the unnamed oil major and Brunei Shell -
who are known to have strict safety and technical requirements - support
this point.
Thirdly, we continue to believe that with two oil majors as its new
customers, it may result in a snowballing effect in attracting other oil
majors to come on board as Swiber's clients in Asia Pacific. As such, we
believe our new orders win assumption of US$400m in 2008 is achievable.
Relevance: Our fair value stays at S$3.49, using 15x FY08 PE. We expect the
contracts flow momentum to be strong through the rest of 1Q 2008, providing
price catalysts to the counter. Maintain BUY.
F & N Starting on a strong note
Story: F&N's strong 1Q08 results were in line with our expectations.
Topline grew by 19% to S$1.32bn, from S$1.11bn. Attributable net profit
ended at S$108.6m, up by 40% from a year ago.
Point: All its business divisions, except for Printing and Publishing,
delivered growth. Its soft drinks (+12%), dairies (+140%), breweries (+17%)
and investment properties (+29%) divisions were the main contributors to
its topline growth.
Relevance: As highlighted in our previous report on 14 Nov, we expect the
Group to continue to deliver positive performances over the next few
quarters, backed by the progressive recognition of its sold-out development
property launches in the past year. In addition, we believe that the Group
is well-positioned in the mid-end residential market in Singapore with a
total landbank of close to 3,000 units. This is also complemented by its
relatively large landbanks of over 34 m sq ft overseas. Maintain BUY; TP:
S$7.18 (previously S$7.40) as we peg the listed entities at current market
values. Our TP is based on sum-of-the-parts with a 10% premium on its
property RNAV in lieu of its huge landbanks in Singapore and overseas.
Topline grew by 19% to S$1.32bn, from S$1.11bn. Attributable net profit
ended at S$108.6m, up by 40% from a year ago.
Point: All its business divisions, except for Printing and Publishing,
delivered growth. Its soft drinks (+12%), dairies (+140%), breweries (+17%)
and investment properties (+29%) divisions were the main contributors to
its topline growth.
Relevance: As highlighted in our previous report on 14 Nov, we expect the
Group to continue to deliver positive performances over the next few
quarters, backed by the progressive recognition of its sold-out development
property launches in the past year. In addition, we believe that the Group
is well-positioned in the mid-end residential market in Singapore with a
total landbank of close to 3,000 units. This is also complemented by its
relatively large landbanks of over 34 m sq ft overseas. Maintain BUY; TP:
S$7.18 (previously S$7.40) as we peg the listed entities at current market
values. Our TP is based on sum-of-the-parts with a 10% premium on its
property RNAV in lieu of its huge landbanks in Singapore and overseas.
China Fishery Group
BUY S$1.78 Price Target : 12-Month S$ 2.72 (Prev S$ 2.89)
Netting higher profits
Story: CFG's 4Q/FY07 results came just a tad (4.3%) below our expectations
of US$92.4m. This was due to (i) some delays in shipment of fishmeal and
(ii) higher operating expenses than our forecast.
Point: Revenue surged 160% y-o-y to US$406m largely due to higher catch
volumes (from its 3rd and 4th Vessel Operating Agreements [VOAs]) and a
full year contribution from its fishmeal operations. Consequently, gross
profit was at US$141m, up 137% from FY06. However, operating expenses
increased by a much higher 228%, largely due to the addition of its
Peruvian fishmeal operations. As a result, net profit ended at US$88.5m, up
by almost 85% from US$48m last year.
Relevance: We have adjusted our forecasts in FY08F-09F down slightly by
about 6% to factor in higher operating expenses. Consequently, our TP is
revised down to S$2.72 (from S$2.89), still premised on 13x FY08F earnings.
Notwithstanding that, we still remain positive of the Group's prospects
over the longer term as we believe it is well poised to benefit from the
rising global demand for fish amid rising affluence and the growth of
aquaculture. On the fishmeal front, based on management's information and
industry reports, it seems that fishmeal prices have stabilised at around
US$900 – US$950/mt region. Catalysts for this counter would come if the
Group manages to re-negotiate its 4th VOA to a prepayment terms, higher
catch volumes and higher than expected fish and fishmeal prices. Maintain
BUY.
Netting higher profits
Story: CFG's 4Q/FY07 results came just a tad (4.3%) below our expectations
of US$92.4m. This was due to (i) some delays in shipment of fishmeal and
(ii) higher operating expenses than our forecast.
Point: Revenue surged 160% y-o-y to US$406m largely due to higher catch
volumes (from its 3rd and 4th Vessel Operating Agreements [VOAs]) and a
full year contribution from its fishmeal operations. Consequently, gross
profit was at US$141m, up 137% from FY06. However, operating expenses
increased by a much higher 228%, largely due to the addition of its
Peruvian fishmeal operations. As a result, net profit ended at US$88.5m, up
by almost 85% from US$48m last year.
Relevance: We have adjusted our forecasts in FY08F-09F down slightly by
about 6% to factor in higher operating expenses. Consequently, our TP is
revised down to S$2.72 (from S$2.89), still premised on 13x FY08F earnings.
Notwithstanding that, we still remain positive of the Group's prospects
over the longer term as we believe it is well poised to benefit from the
rising global demand for fish amid rising affluence and the growth of
aquaculture. On the fishmeal front, based on management's information and
industry reports, it seems that fishmeal prices have stabilised at around
US$900 – US$950/mt region. Catalysts for this counter would come if the
Group manages to re-negotiate its 4th VOA to a prepayment terms, higher
catch volumes and higher than expected fish and fishmeal prices. Maintain
BUY.
DBS 2007 Results Flash
DBS : BUY (Target : S$25.00)
DBS reported 2007 net profit of S$2.28b, flat versus 2006's S$2.27b. This is marginally lower than our S$2.40b forecast, primarily due to higher allowances for credit and other losses.
Net interest margin narrowed 3 bps to 2.17%. Net interest income rose 14% to S$4.11b, driven by gross loan expansion of 25%. However, NIM narrowed 3 bps, due to lower interest margins in HK. The recent margin squeeze was more pronounced - 4Q07 NIM of 2.11% was down from 3Q07's 2.14%, due to lower HK prime lending rate, and lower interbank asset yields. Given the continued weak SIBOR, we expect margin to remain narrow in the quarters ahead. But DBS loans expansion could still drive net interest income expansion.
Non-interest income rose 11%. Fee & commission income (71% share of non-interest income) surged 27% to S$1.46b. The key contributors were a) stockbroking (+77% or S$109m); and b) wealth management (+46% or S$79m). Net income from financial investments was up 97% to S$450m. However, net trading income collapsed 66% to S$180m as the fallout from the US sub-prime mortgages impacted the credit trading portfolio and structured credit business. This was further compounded by marked-to-market losses from Rosa's CDOs.
Though specific allowances for loans fell to S$16m, specific allowances for non-loan assets was a high S$100m, inclusive of a S$117m charge for the S$267m of investment CDOs with exposure to US sub-prime mortgages. General allowances of S$66m included S$53m for investment CDOs with exposure to US sub-prime mortgages and another S$30m for the balance S$944m of investment CDOs.
DBS declared a final dividend of 20¢ ps (one-tier tax-exempt). Total 2007 dividends amounts to 80¢, which is more than 2006's 76¢.
DBS reported 2007 net profit of S$2.28b, flat versus 2006's S$2.27b. This is marginally lower than our S$2.40b forecast, primarily due to higher allowances for credit and other losses.
Net interest margin narrowed 3 bps to 2.17%. Net interest income rose 14% to S$4.11b, driven by gross loan expansion of 25%. However, NIM narrowed 3 bps, due to lower interest margins in HK. The recent margin squeeze was more pronounced - 4Q07 NIM of 2.11% was down from 3Q07's 2.14%, due to lower HK prime lending rate, and lower interbank asset yields. Given the continued weak SIBOR, we expect margin to remain narrow in the quarters ahead. But DBS loans expansion could still drive net interest income expansion.
Non-interest income rose 11%. Fee & commission income (71% share of non-interest income) surged 27% to S$1.46b. The key contributors were a) stockbroking (+77% or S$109m); and b) wealth management (+46% or S$79m). Net income from financial investments was up 97% to S$450m. However, net trading income collapsed 66% to S$180m as the fallout from the US sub-prime mortgages impacted the credit trading portfolio and structured credit business. This was further compounded by marked-to-market losses from Rosa's CDOs.
Though specific allowances for loans fell to S$16m, specific allowances for non-loan assets was a high S$100m, inclusive of a S$117m charge for the S$267m of investment CDOs with exposure to US sub-prime mortgages. General allowances of S$66m included S$53m for investment CDOs with exposure to US sub-prime mortgages and another S$30m for the balance S$944m of investment CDOs.
DBS declared a final dividend of 20¢ ps (one-tier tax-exempt). Total 2007 dividends amounts to 80¢, which is more than 2006's 76¢.
China Essence Group New capacities onstream
3Q/9M08 results were in line with our expectations.
Point: Revenue for 9M surged by 63% y-o-y to RMB588.8m from RMB361.2m a
year ago on higher ASPs and higher volumes for its potato starch. This was
largely due to its newly added 80,000 tpa capacities at its Sui Ling,
Heilongjiang and Ahlihe, Inner Mongolia plants (40,000 tpa each). Gross
profit rose by 57% to RMB268.3m. Due to higher costs of potatoes in this
harvest season (Aug – Nov'07) at RMB450/mt vis-Ã -vis the previous season's
average cost of RMB320/mt, gross margins were lower by 1.8ppt to 45.6%,
from 47.4% a year ago. However, net profit for 9M still ended at RMB174.7m,
up by 67% from RMB104.8m as a result of its lower effective tax rate.
Relevance: The Group also announced that construction of the production
lines for its two new products – potato fibre and potato protein – has
progressed well and is expected to commence production in 3QFY09. We have
adjusted our FY09F forecasts upwards by about 12.6% to take into account:
(i) contributions from potato fibre and potato protein; and (ii) higher
ASPs of its potato starch. However, in line with the general de-rating of
the market in recent weeks, we are pegging our valuations to a more
conservative 8x on FY09F earnings (instead of 12x previously). This is at
the lower end of the counter's historical trading band. Consequently, our
TP is revised to S$0.85.
Point: Revenue for 9M surged by 63% y-o-y to RMB588.8m from RMB361.2m a
year ago on higher ASPs and higher volumes for its potato starch. This was
largely due to its newly added 80,000 tpa capacities at its Sui Ling,
Heilongjiang and Ahlihe, Inner Mongolia plants (40,000 tpa each). Gross
profit rose by 57% to RMB268.3m. Due to higher costs of potatoes in this
harvest season (Aug – Nov'07) at RMB450/mt vis-Ã -vis the previous season's
average cost of RMB320/mt, gross margins were lower by 1.8ppt to 45.6%,
from 47.4% a year ago. However, net profit for 9M still ended at RMB174.7m,
up by 67% from RMB104.8m as a result of its lower effective tax rate.
Relevance: The Group also announced that construction of the production
lines for its two new products – potato fibre and potato protein – has
progressed well and is expected to commence production in 3QFY09. We have
adjusted our FY09F forecasts upwards by about 12.6% to take into account:
(i) contributions from potato fibre and potato protein; and (ii) higher
ASPs of its potato starch. However, in line with the general de-rating of
the market in recent weeks, we are pegging our valuations to a more
conservative 8x on FY09F earnings (instead of 12x previously). This is at
the lower end of the counter's historical trading band. Consequently, our
TP is revised to S$0.85.
China Dairy Group Ltd: Caught between a rock and a hard place
Summary: We spoke to the management of China Dairy Group Ltd (CDG) recently, and the key takeaway was the rising heat from inflationary costs. Recent statistics from raw milk producer China Milk Products Group Ltd suggest that the cost of raw milk, a key component of CDG's cost of goods, could have risen by 27% in 2H07. Coupled with rising oil prices which will flow into higher operational costs, we expect a decline in the profitability of milk processors across the PRC, since they are generally unable to fully pass on costs to consumers. Furthermore, the PRC government has introduced curbs on price hikes for consumer products such as grain, milk and meat, adding to these food processors' woes of a margin squeeze. With various negative externalities inhibiting its growth, we have trimmed our estimates for CDG. We roll forward our valuation to FY08, but use a lower PER of 12x (previously 15x) to account for the lack of near term catalysts, translating to a fair value estimate of S$0.28. Downgrade to HOLD.
StarHub: Wins Uefa Broadcast Rights
Summary: StarHub has won the exclusive rights to broadcast the 2008 Uefa European Football Championship in Singapore, meaning that rival SingTel is still without a major sporting event to help draw more customers to its Mio pay-TV service. While StarHub did not disclose the price it paid for the broadcast rights, we do not expect it to come cheap. And as with the case of the 2006 World Cup broadcast, we expect StarHub to charge its sports viewers on a pay-per-view basis. We will have more updates when we see what sort of package StarHub intends to offer. Meanwhile, we are also leaving our numbers unchanged, pending the release of its FY07 results this evening. For now, we retain our BUY call and S$3.41 fair value.
NEWS HEADLINES
- Aztech Systems has secured a S$253m contract for the supply of construction material.
- China Essence Group posted an 85% YoY increase in 3Q08 net profit to RMB100.m as revenue almost doubled from RMB166m to RMB330.3m.
- Jade Tech is selling its wholly-owned, loss-making subsidiary Jade Precision Engineering to United Pacific Industries (UPI) for about S$6m in UPI shares and cash.
- Yoma Strategic Hldgs posted a S$21.06m net profit in 3Q08, a turnaround from a S$13.82m loss a year ago, thanks mainly to the completed acquisition of a 27% interest in Winner Sight Investments.
- Mercator Lines reported a 3Q08 net profit of US$14.4m, up sharply from US$2.4m a year ago. The company attributed the 106% YoY gain in revenue at US$43.1m to improved vessel day rates and an increase in the number of operating days.
- Vicom, the vehicle inspection unit of ComfortDelGro, posted a 31% YoY gain in FY07 net profit to S$13.5m.
- KTL Global has secured a 5-year contract to supply up to US$7m worth of wire ropes for crane equipment to the McDermott Group. It also announced a 24.6% YoY increase in 1H net profit to S$2.18m.
- Saizen REIT's 2Q08 net property income jumped 77.8% YoY to S$7.95m on the back of an 85% increase in gross revenue to S$11.23m.
StarHub: Wins Uefa Broadcast Rights
Summary: StarHub has won the exclusive rights to broadcast the 2008 Uefa European Football Championship in Singapore, meaning that rival SingTel is still without a major sporting event to help draw more customers to its Mio pay-TV service. While StarHub did not disclose the price it paid for the broadcast rights, we do not expect it to come cheap. And as with the case of the 2006 World Cup broadcast, we expect StarHub to charge its sports viewers on a pay-per-view basis. We will have more updates when we see what sort of package StarHub intends to offer. Meanwhile, we are also leaving our numbers unchanged, pending the release of its FY07 results this evening. For now, we retain our BUY call and S$3.41 fair value.
NEWS HEADLINES
- Aztech Systems has secured a S$253m contract for the supply of construction material.
- China Essence Group posted an 85% YoY increase in 3Q08 net profit to RMB100.m as revenue almost doubled from RMB166m to RMB330.3m.
- Jade Tech is selling its wholly-owned, loss-making subsidiary Jade Precision Engineering to United Pacific Industries (UPI) for about S$6m in UPI shares and cash.
- Yoma Strategic Hldgs posted a S$21.06m net profit in 3Q08, a turnaround from a S$13.82m loss a year ago, thanks mainly to the completed acquisition of a 27% interest in Winner Sight Investments.
- Mercator Lines reported a 3Q08 net profit of US$14.4m, up sharply from US$2.4m a year ago. The company attributed the 106% YoY gain in revenue at US$43.1m to improved vessel day rates and an increase in the number of operating days.
- Vicom, the vehicle inspection unit of ComfortDelGro, posted a 31% YoY gain in FY07 net profit to S$13.5m.
- KTL Global has secured a 5-year contract to supply up to US$7m worth of wire ropes for crane equipment to the McDermott Group. It also announced a 24.6% YoY increase in 1H net profit to S$2.18m.
- Saizen REIT's 2Q08 net property income jumped 77.8% YoY to S$7.95m on the back of an 85% increase in gross revenue to S$11.23m.
DMG Daily 13 Feb 08 - NOL, DBS, Jade, Yoma, China Essence, Vicom, Mercator, Aztech, Robinson
Market Outlook
It was a day for the bargain hunters as the STI opened up 0.9% at 2,895
over its previous close and barely looked back for the rest of the
session.
A positive open by the Hong Kong market further strengthened sentiment
on the local front as the STI eventually closed up 57.94 points or 2.02%
to
2,926.23 on Tuesday. The show that had been put on by the index was
easily one of the best performers in the region. On the scoreboard,
gainers beat losers 466 to 208 while volume traded also improved to
1.49bn shares that were worth some $1.55bn. Index heavyweight SingTel
continued to lend support to the STI as it jumped 21 cents or 5.6% to
$3.93 although the three local banks underperformed as investors
continued to shun financials.
A target price cut on UOB and DBS by a major foreign brokerage didn't
help as both lagged the broader market by inching up 1.2% and 0.7% to
$17.20 and
$16.78 respectively. For the week, expect the retail sales economic data
to be released on Wednesday in the US as one of the major events as
investors gauge the health of the US consumer.
Media Highlights
- NOL Q4 net up almost four times to US$196m
- DBS seen posting sharply lower Q407 earnings
- Jade Tech in deal to sell loss-making unit
- Yoma in the black with $21m Q3 profit
- China Essence reports 85% jump in Q3 net profit
- Vicom full-year net profit accelerates 31% to $13.5m
- Mercator's Q3 profit jumps to US$14.4m
- Aztech wins $253m material supply deal
- Robinson Q2 profit up 6.7% on higher sales
Economic Highlights
- Credit crisis spreading far beyond sub-prime loans
- Fed may have to cut rates to 1% or lower: Citigroup
It was a day for the bargain hunters as the STI opened up 0.9% at 2,895
over its previous close and barely looked back for the rest of the
session.
A positive open by the Hong Kong market further strengthened sentiment
on the local front as the STI eventually closed up 57.94 points or 2.02%
to
2,926.23 on Tuesday. The show that had been put on by the index was
easily one of the best performers in the region. On the scoreboard,
gainers beat losers 466 to 208 while volume traded also improved to
1.49bn shares that were worth some $1.55bn. Index heavyweight SingTel
continued to lend support to the STI as it jumped 21 cents or 5.6% to
$3.93 although the three local banks underperformed as investors
continued to shun financials.
A target price cut on UOB and DBS by a major foreign brokerage didn't
help as both lagged the broader market by inching up 1.2% and 0.7% to
$17.20 and
$16.78 respectively. For the week, expect the retail sales economic data
to be released on Wednesday in the US as one of the major events as
investors gauge the health of the US consumer.
Media Highlights
- NOL Q4 net up almost four times to US$196m
- DBS seen posting sharply lower Q407 earnings
- Jade Tech in deal to sell loss-making unit
- Yoma in the black with $21m Q3 profit
- China Essence reports 85% jump in Q3 net profit
- Vicom full-year net profit accelerates 31% to $13.5m
- Mercator's Q3 profit jumps to US$14.4m
- Aztech wins $253m material supply deal
- Robinson Q2 profit up 6.7% on higher sales
Economic Highlights
- Credit crisis spreading far beyond sub-prime loans
- Fed may have to cut rates to 1% or lower: Citigroup
Budget PreviewSingapre Market Focus
Generous pro-individual budget expected
Managing rising inflation. The key thrust in this year's budget will not
be
significantly different from previous years. Amidst a backdrop of
growing
downside risks to growth and escalating inflation, the forthcoming
budget
will focus on sharing the fruits of growth, helping the lower income
group
cope with the escalating costs of living and enhancing the
competitiveness
of the economy so as to provide the platform for stronger growth in the
years ahead.
Fat surplus, generous budget for the individual: The key measures to be
announced would probably be cuts in the personal income tax. Top tier
personal income tax rate, presently at 20% could be aligned more closely
to
the existing corporate tax rate of 18% in order to make Singapore a more
attractive location for top foreign talents. To alleviate burden of
rising
costs of living on the lower income group, the budget is expected to be
"spiced" substantially with inflation offset measures.
Corporate tax cut unlikely. Following last years' 2pct cut in corporate
tax
rate to 18%, we do not expect another cut in corporate income tax rate
this year. However, the budget is expected to include measures which are
targeted at enhancing the competitiveness of businesses. With that in
mind,
further increase in the employers' share of the CPF contribution is
unlikely given that such a measure will increase the wage costs and
depress
margin at a time when growth is most likely to slow further.
No cheer for the stockmarket. Unlike 2007, we do not expect the budget
to
have any impact on the stockmarket, given the remote possibility of a
corporate tax cut. The upcoming budget is likely to be pro-individual,
given ongoing concerns of rising inflation and the fact that
pro-business
measures had been employed over the past few years. Focus will be on the
4Q
and final GDP growth rate for 2007, as well as the government's forecast
for 2008, to be released this Thursday. With the deteriorating growth
environment, there's downside risk to our current growth forecasts of
6.5%
for 2008, vs 7.5% for 2007(preliminary estimate).
Managing rising inflation. The key thrust in this year's budget will not
be
significantly different from previous years. Amidst a backdrop of
growing
downside risks to growth and escalating inflation, the forthcoming
budget
will focus on sharing the fruits of growth, helping the lower income
group
cope with the escalating costs of living and enhancing the
competitiveness
of the economy so as to provide the platform for stronger growth in the
years ahead.
Fat surplus, generous budget for the individual: The key measures to be
announced would probably be cuts in the personal income tax. Top tier
personal income tax rate, presently at 20% could be aligned more closely
to
the existing corporate tax rate of 18% in order to make Singapore a more
attractive location for top foreign talents. To alleviate burden of
rising
costs of living on the lower income group, the budget is expected to be
"spiced" substantially with inflation offset measures.
Corporate tax cut unlikely. Following last years' 2pct cut in corporate
tax
rate to 18%, we do not expect another cut in corporate income tax rate
this year. However, the budget is expected to include measures which are
targeted at enhancing the competitiveness of businesses. With that in
mind,
further increase in the employers' share of the CPF contribution is
unlikely given that such a measure will increase the wage costs and
depress
margin at a time when growth is most likely to slow further.
No cheer for the stockmarket. Unlike 2007, we do not expect the budget
to
have any impact on the stockmarket, given the remote possibility of a
corporate tax cut. The upcoming budget is likely to be pro-individual,
given ongoing concerns of rising inflation and the fact that
pro-business
measures had been employed over the past few years. Focus will be on the
4Q
and final GDP growth rate for 2007, as well as the government's forecast
for 2008, to be released this Thursday. With the deteriorating growth
environment, there's downside risk to our current growth forecasts of
6.5%
for 2008, vs 7.5% for 2007(preliminary estimate).
StarHub Ltd: Eyes 10% revenue growth in FY08
Summary: StarHub Ltd posted a good set of 4Q07 results, with revenue up 13.9% YoY and 5.0% QoQ to S$538.8m, aided by good performance from all its business units. Although net profit fell 30.5% YoY (+21.0% QoQ) to S$98.4m, we note that the year-ago quarter was boosted by S$57.6m tax credit versus S$6.7m in 4Q07 (none in 3Q07). StarHub also declared a final dividend of S$0.045/share (versus S$0.035 in 4Q06), bringing the total dividend for the year to S$0.16 (versus S$0.115 in FY06). For FY08, management remains confident that it can sustain revenue growth at 10%, and hold EBITDA margin on service revenue at about 33%. It also aims to pay a minimum cash dividend of S$0.18/share, or around S$0.045 per quarter. In line with the latest guidance, we have adjusted our FY08 estimates by around 4% higher. Again, we see StarHub as a good defensive stock, backed by an attractive dividend policy, hence we maintain our BUY rating with a revised fair value of S$3.51.
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
Tat Hong Holdings Ltd: 3Q08 results indicated signs of slower growth
Summary: Tat Hong Holdings Limited (THH) turned in a mixed bag of 3Q08 results yesterday. Though revenue increased 17% YoY to S$157.9m and net profit rose 20% YoY to S$21.2m, revenue slipped 1.4% QoQ and net profit fell 7.3% QoQ. We also note that the total fleet tonnage has decreased 3.5% from 43,416 tonnes in 2Q08 to 41,906 tonnes in 3Q08, implying that THH is facing a limitation in expanding fleet tonnage capacity in this tight equipment supply market. Nonetheless, we believe that there is still much to cheer about as a slew of local development projects are planned in 2008, although we foresee lower utilisation levels and that rental rates are likely to reach a plateau soon. In view of this, we are trimming our forecasted revenue and net profit estimates. We have not factored in a potential one-off gain from the listing of Fushun Yongmao in our FY08F valuations. Rolling forward our valuation parameter to FY09F earnings, our fair value estimate is now S$3.44 (from S$4.02 previously). Maintain BUY.
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
SSH Corporation Ltd: Stellar set of 1H08 results
Summary: SSH Corporation Ltd (SSH) turned in a stellar set of 1H08 results yesterday. Both revenue and gross profit surged 48% YoY to S$114.7m and S$29.2m respectively. Consistent with that of 1H07, gross profit margin maintained at 26%. Stripping off the one-time extraordinary gains of approximately S$1.7m, SSH's recurring net profit of S$10.8m came close to our half-year expectations of S$10.6m. SSH has proposed an interim dividend of 0.7 cent (tax-exempt) per share. We believe that SSH should not have any problems maintaining our dividend payout projection of at least 1 cent for FY08, translating into a decent yield of at least 3.2% for FY08. We are maintaining our FY08 and FY09 earnings estimates. However, with the vulnerability in the global market sentiment, we are lowering our valuation parameter to 12x. Our fair value estimate is trimmed to S$0.54 (from previously S$0.60) based on 12x FY09 forecasted earnings. We reiterate our BUY rating.
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
Rotary Engineering Limited: Seals US$62m deal to build storage tanks in Saudi Arabia
Summary: In our recent report dated 31 January, we had previously mentioned that Rotary Engineering Limited (Rotary) was in the running for several projects, both locally and in the Middle East. In line with this, Rotary announced yesterday that its join venture company, Petrol Steel Co Ltd (Petrol Steel) had secured a US$62m deal with Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Company to construct 24 tanks for its Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Complex in Al-Jubail, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Work would commence soon and is expected to be completed by end 2008. We view this award positively, as this is Petrol Steel's first significant win. We await Rotary's FY07 results on 26 Feb 2008 for more updates. In the meantime, we maintain our BUY rating for Rotary, with a fair value estimate of S$1.48.
Silverlake Axis: Good set of 2Q08 results
Summary: Silverlake Axis Limited (SAL) reported a good set of 2Q08 results as expected last night, with revenue up 30.3% YoY at MYR50.1m, while net profit jumped 78.4% to MYR44.3m, thanks to its recent SIBS licensing expansion into non-banking financial services sector. As a result, SIBS licensing contributed nearly 73.9% of total revenue, and because of its high margin, contributed 83.2% of gross profit. We were also heartened to see an associate contribution of MYR3.0m from Unifisoft, which marked a turnaround from a MYR0.5m loss in 1Q08. At the half way mark, SAL's revenue rose 67.6% to MYR107.6m, meeting nearly 58.1% of our FY08 estimate, while net profit jumped 69.5% to MYR76.9m, or 71.1% of our FY estimate. SAL has also declared an interim dividend of S$0.015/share, versus S$0.0075 last year. We will be meeting with management for an update later. For now, we retain our BUY rating and S$0.75 fair value.
Singapore Shipping Corporation Ltd: Weak set of 3Q results
Summary: Singapore Shipping Corporation Ltd (SSC) released a weaker set of 3Q08 results YoY as expected, with revenue down 52.1% YoY to S$3.1m due to the cessation of the manning service from January 2007 for third party vessels. Operating profit margin was relatively stable at 12.1% in 3Q08 versus 12% in 3Q07. While net profit fell by a steep 91.1% YoY to S$0.5m in 3Q08, we note that it was mainly due to a S$5.3m gain from the disposal of associated companies in 3Q07. On the balance sheet front, SSC's cash balance stands at S$38.1m as at Dec 07, attributable to Dec's special interim dividend payout of approximately S$52.3m (S$0.12/share). Hence, we revise our net assets projection for FY09 to S$94.9m, from S$105.6m previously. With SSC sourcing for suitable vessels to expand its current fleet and operations and all 3 vessels still out on charter, we expect organic growth in the near to medium term to remain stable based on existing operating assets. As such, we are maintaining the P/B ratio of 1x and our new fair value for SSC is S$0.22 (S$0.32 previously). As SSC is currently trading around S$0.39, we are maintaining our SELL rating.
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
Tat Hong Holdings Ltd: 3Q08 results indicated signs of slower growth
Summary: Tat Hong Holdings Limited (THH) turned in a mixed bag of 3Q08 results yesterday. Though revenue increased 17% YoY to S$157.9m and net profit rose 20% YoY to S$21.2m, revenue slipped 1.4% QoQ and net profit fell 7.3% QoQ. We also note that the total fleet tonnage has decreased 3.5% from 43,416 tonnes in 2Q08 to 41,906 tonnes in 3Q08, implying that THH is facing a limitation in expanding fleet tonnage capacity in this tight equipment supply market. Nonetheless, we believe that there is still much to cheer about as a slew of local development projects are planned in 2008, although we foresee lower utilisation levels and that rental rates are likely to reach a plateau soon. In view of this, we are trimming our forecasted revenue and net profit estimates. We have not factored in a potential one-off gain from the listing of Fushun Yongmao in our FY08F valuations. Rolling forward our valuation parameter to FY09F earnings, our fair value estimate is now S$3.44 (from S$4.02 previously). Maintain BUY.
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
SSH Corporation Ltd: Stellar set of 1H08 results
Summary: SSH Corporation Ltd (SSH) turned in a stellar set of 1H08 results yesterday. Both revenue and gross profit surged 48% YoY to S$114.7m and S$29.2m respectively. Consistent with that of 1H07, gross profit margin maintained at 26%. Stripping off the one-time extraordinary gains of approximately S$1.7m, SSH's recurring net profit of S$10.8m came close to our half-year expectations of S$10.6m. SSH has proposed an interim dividend of 0.7 cent (tax-exempt) per share. We believe that SSH should not have any problems maintaining our dividend payout projection of at least 1 cent for FY08, translating into a decent yield of at least 3.2% for FY08. We are maintaining our FY08 and FY09 earnings estimates. However, with the vulnerability in the global market sentiment, we are lowering our valuation parameter to 12x. Our fair value estimate is trimmed to S$0.54 (from previously S$0.60) based on 12x FY09 forecasted earnings. We reiterate our BUY rating.
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.com for detailed report.
Rotary Engineering Limited: Seals US$62m deal to build storage tanks in Saudi Arabia
Summary: In our recent report dated 31 January, we had previously mentioned that Rotary Engineering Limited (Rotary) was in the running for several projects, both locally and in the Middle East. In line with this, Rotary announced yesterday that its join venture company, Petrol Steel Co Ltd (Petrol Steel) had secured a US$62m deal with Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Company to construct 24 tanks for its Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Complex in Al-Jubail, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Work would commence soon and is expected to be completed by end 2008. We view this award positively, as this is Petrol Steel's first significant win. We await Rotary's FY07 results on 26 Feb 2008 for more updates. In the meantime, we maintain our BUY rating for Rotary, with a fair value estimate of S$1.48.
Silverlake Axis: Good set of 2Q08 results
Summary: Silverlake Axis Limited (SAL) reported a good set of 2Q08 results as expected last night, with revenue up 30.3% YoY at MYR50.1m, while net profit jumped 78.4% to MYR44.3m, thanks to its recent SIBS licensing expansion into non-banking financial services sector. As a result, SIBS licensing contributed nearly 73.9% of total revenue, and because of its high margin, contributed 83.2% of gross profit. We were also heartened to see an associate contribution of MYR3.0m from Unifisoft, which marked a turnaround from a MYR0.5m loss in 1Q08. At the half way mark, SAL's revenue rose 67.6% to MYR107.6m, meeting nearly 58.1% of our FY08 estimate, while net profit jumped 69.5% to MYR76.9m, or 71.1% of our FY estimate. SAL has also declared an interim dividend of S$0.015/share, versus S$0.0075 last year. We will be meeting with management for an update later. For now, we retain our BUY rating and S$0.75 fair value.
Singapore Shipping Corporation Ltd: Weak set of 3Q results
Summary: Singapore Shipping Corporation Ltd (SSC) released a weaker set of 3Q08 results YoY as expected, with revenue down 52.1% YoY to S$3.1m due to the cessation of the manning service from January 2007 for third party vessels. Operating profit margin was relatively stable at 12.1% in 3Q08 versus 12% in 3Q07. While net profit fell by a steep 91.1% YoY to S$0.5m in 3Q08, we note that it was mainly due to a S$5.3m gain from the disposal of associated companies in 3Q07. On the balance sheet front, SSC's cash balance stands at S$38.1m as at Dec 07, attributable to Dec's special interim dividend payout of approximately S$52.3m (S$0.12/share). Hence, we revise our net assets projection for FY09 to S$94.9m, from S$105.6m previously. With SSC sourcing for suitable vessels to expand its current fleet and operations and all 3 vessels still out on charter, we expect organic growth in the near to medium term to remain stable based on existing operating assets. As such, we are maintaining the P/B ratio of 1x and our new fair value for SSC is S$0.22 (S$0.32 previously). As SSC is currently trading around S$0.39, we are maintaining our SELL rating.
StarHub -Strong Results; Excellent Dividend Play
4Q and full-year results. StarHub reported 4Q operating revenue of S$538.8m (+13.9% yoy) and net profit of S$98.3m (-30.6% yoy). Moreover, EBITDA increased to S$157.4m (+7.8% yoy). It also declared a final dividend of S$0.045 per ordinary share, which was higher than the final dividend of S$0.035 last year. This brought the total annual dividend to S$0.16 (+39.1% yoy) per ordinary share for 2007 that is significantly higher than the total annual dividend of S$0.115 for 2006.
Tat Hong-A soaring crane still needs to rest
Story: Tat Hong's revenue grew 17% y-o-y to S$157.9m in 3Q08, and 31% to
S$456.2m in 9M08. The crane utilization rate still stood at a high 81.2% as
of end 3Q08, slightly down q-o-q from 83.5%. Net profit subsequently jumped
20% y-o-y to S$21.2m in 3Q08 and 65% to S$61.4m in 9M08. This set of
results is roughly in line with expectation, and Tat Hong remains on target
to reach our net profit estimate of S$86.8m in FY08.
Point: Despite the strong outlook for construction and infrastructure
projects in Asia Pacific and its proven track record, we believe that the
lowered investors' risk appetite will make it increasingly hard for Tat
Hong to continue justifying a substantial valuation premium over its listed
peers and subsidiary in Singapore and Australia. Tat Hong currently trades
at 15x FY09 PE and 6.8x FY07 P/B, vs. its peers'average PE of 8x and P/B of
about 1.5x. Indeed, given that the market volatility is unlikely to subside
in the near term, we reckon the risk to Tat Hong's share price to be
increasingly tilted towards valuation compression, as compared to the lower
probability of share price re-rating.
Relevance: We have downgraded our fair value for Tat Hong to S$2.70, using
a downward revised 13x FY09 PE, vs. 16x previously. This is within the PE
range of 9x-25x since the group staged a profit turnaround in FY03, and is
roughly in line with Tat Hong's average PE of about 13.6x. While the
substantial valuation premium over its peers' corresponding 8x PE, at our
fair value, may still look huge, we believe that it is reasonable given Tat
Hong's proven track record in pursuing earnings growth and its
substantially bigger market capitalization. We have also downgraded Tat
Hong to Fully Valued.
S$456.2m in 9M08. The crane utilization rate still stood at a high 81.2% as
of end 3Q08, slightly down q-o-q from 83.5%. Net profit subsequently jumped
20% y-o-y to S$21.2m in 3Q08 and 65% to S$61.4m in 9M08. This set of
results is roughly in line with expectation, and Tat Hong remains on target
to reach our net profit estimate of S$86.8m in FY08.
Point: Despite the strong outlook for construction and infrastructure
projects in Asia Pacific and its proven track record, we believe that the
lowered investors' risk appetite will make it increasingly hard for Tat
Hong to continue justifying a substantial valuation premium over its listed
peers and subsidiary in Singapore and Australia. Tat Hong currently trades
at 15x FY09 PE and 6.8x FY07 P/B, vs. its peers'average PE of 8x and P/B of
about 1.5x. Indeed, given that the market volatility is unlikely to subside
in the near term, we reckon the risk to Tat Hong's share price to be
increasingly tilted towards valuation compression, as compared to the lower
probability of share price re-rating.
Relevance: We have downgraded our fair value for Tat Hong to S$2.70, using
a downward revised 13x FY09 PE, vs. 16x previously. This is within the PE
range of 9x-25x since the group staged a profit turnaround in FY03, and is
roughly in line with Tat Hong's average PE of about 13.6x. While the
substantial valuation premium over its peers' corresponding 8x PE, at our
fair value, may still look huge, we believe that it is reasonable given Tat
Hong's proven track record in pursuing earnings growth and its
substantially bigger market capitalization. We have also downgraded Tat
Hong to Fully Valued.
Comparson between China Railway Group (390 HK) & China Railway Construction Corp
According to local press, China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC)
resumed the IPO process this week. The Group began investor education for
HK portion of its deal this week before a formal roadshow starts on 25th
Feb. A price range will be set on 22nd Feb. CRCC plans to sell to
investors 37.9% of company shares through the dual listing (A+H). The
proceeds from the IPO is about US$3-4b. The stellar share price
performance of the China Railway Group (CRG) has triggered greater
attention on the railway industry in China and CRCC's IPO.
We did a comparison between CRG and CRCC. There are a lot of similarities
between CRG and CRCC (such as revenue breakdown, industry outlook, company
background and profitability), as they are the two leading construction
companies in China. Infrastructure construction division accounted for
over 90% of CRG's and CRCC's turnover in 2006. Railway construction
accounted for about 40% of both CRG's and CRCC's turnover at the
infrastructure construction division. CRG has a higher exposure to China
property sector as property division accounted for 1.2% of total turnover
and 11.6% of operating profit in 2006. Property division only accounted for
0.4% and 3.1% of CRCC's total turnover and operating profit in 2006. CRG's
overall margin appears to be higher than CRCC as CRG achieved better
operating performance at the property division and equipment manufacturing
division. CRCC achieved higher operating efficiency as CRCC's sales and
net profit per staff were higher.
We consider both CRG and CRCC are high quality railway plays in China. The
industry outlook for both companies is favourable given the government's
plan to expand the railway network aggressively in the coming years. In
view of their proven track records and dominant market position, both
companies are well-positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in the
railway industry. Apart from railway construction, there are other growth
drivers, including a.) expansion into overseas markets, b.) expansion into
other business and c.) improvement in operating efficiency.
Without an indicative price range, it is impossible to do a comparison
between CRG and CRCC based on valuation (such as PER, EV/EBITDA or PEG).
However, we believe that CRCC is likely to price attractively in order to
lure investors given the current market environment.
Differences between China Railway Group (CRC) and China Railway
Construction Corporation (CRCC)
China Railway Group China Railway Construction Corporation
Ticker 390 HK
FY06 Turnover
breakdown (%)
Infrastructure 91.4 95.3
Construction
Survey, Design 2.7 2.2
and Consulting
Services
Equipment 2.7 0.9
manufacturing
Property 1.2 0.4
Others 4.1 1.9
FY06 Operating
profit breakdown
(%)
Infrastructure 60.5 85.8
Construction
Survey, Design 9.5 3.3
and Consulting
Services
Equipment 12.1 0.7
manufacturing
Property 11.6 3.1
Others 4.9 7.1
FY06 Operating
margin (%)
Infrastructure 1.6 1.4
Construction
Survey, Design 8.5 2.4
and Consulting
Services
Equipment 10.9 1.3
manufacturing
Property 22.7 13.2
Others 2.9 5.8
FY06 turnover Railway (43.7%) Railway (42.0%)
Breakdown of Highway (30.0%) Highway (38.9%)
Infrastructure Municipal works (26.3%) Municipal works (19.1%)
Construction
division
Survey & design 1 2
institutes
Equipment Largest manufacturers of Largest large track maintenance
manufacturing turnouts. machinery manufacturer
Sole developer and manufacturer
currently producing high
manganese steel welded frogs
and the only manufacturer
currently producing
acceleration turnouts in China
Property 6.3m 5.4m
development (GFA Beijing, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Guiyang, Changsha,Xuzhou, Baoding,
m2) Guiyang, Guangzhou, Wuhan Hebei, Chongqing, Laixi, Beijing
Location Shijizhuang and Anging Qingdao and Linan.
Other business 3 gold mines (1 in Inner Potential investment in cement
Mongoia and two in Congo), 1 production in Nigeria
cobalt mine in Congo
Ranking in China 1 2
Listed China Raiwlay Erju Nil
subsidiaries
No. of staff 276,504 183,308
Sales per staff 555,392 837,989
(Rmb) 7,400 6,628
Net profit per
staff (Rmb)
Future growth Property development, overseas Cement production, margin improvement
drivers projects, margin improvement, especially at the survey, design and
mining and BT and BOT projects consulting services division and
equipment manufacturing division
(FY08 PER) 36 n.a.
Mkt cap. (US$m) 12,301 4,000.
Major subsidiaries under CRG and CRCC
China Railway Group China Railway Construction
Corporation
China Overseas Engineering Group China Civil Engineering
Construction Corp
China Railway No.1 Engineering Group China Railway 11th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway No.2 Engineering Group China Railway 12th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway No.3 Engineering Group China Railway 13th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway No.4 Engineering Group China Railway 14th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway No.5 Engineering Group China Railway 15th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway No.6 Engineering Group China Railway 16th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway No.7 Engineering Group China Railway 17th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway No.8 Engineering Group China Railway 18th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway No.9 Engineering Group China Railway 19th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway No.10 Engineering Group China Railway 20th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway Major Bridge Engineering China Railway 21th Construction
Group Bureau Corp
China Railway Tunnel Group China Railway 22th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway Electrification Engineering China Railway 23th Construction
Group Bureau Corp
China railway Construction Group (CRCG) China Railway 24th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway Eryuan Engineering Goup China Railway 25th Construction
Bureau Corp
The Third Railway Survey and Design Zhong-Tie Construction Group
Institute Corp
China Railway Engineering Consulting Group China Railway Material Corp
China Railway Major Bridge Reconnaissance
Design Institute
Huatie Engineering Cosulting Co
Martech Marine & China Railway Engineering
China Railway Shanhaiguan Bridge Group
Baoji China Railway Turnout & Bridge
Development
China Railway Baoji Machinery
China Railway heavy Machinery
China Railway Northwest Research Institute
China Railway Southwest Research Institute
China Railway Engineering Machinery
Research & Design Institute
HangRan Management Institute
China Railway Engineering Institute
resumed the IPO process this week. The Group began investor education for
HK portion of its deal this week before a formal roadshow starts on 25th
Feb. A price range will be set on 22nd Feb. CRCC plans to sell to
investors 37.9% of company shares through the dual listing (A+H). The
proceeds from the IPO is about US$3-4b. The stellar share price
performance of the China Railway Group (CRG) has triggered greater
attention on the railway industry in China and CRCC's IPO.
We did a comparison between CRG and CRCC. There are a lot of similarities
between CRG and CRCC (such as revenue breakdown, industry outlook, company
background and profitability), as they are the two leading construction
companies in China. Infrastructure construction division accounted for
over 90% of CRG's and CRCC's turnover in 2006. Railway construction
accounted for about 40% of both CRG's and CRCC's turnover at the
infrastructure construction division. CRG has a higher exposure to China
property sector as property division accounted for 1.2% of total turnover
and 11.6% of operating profit in 2006. Property division only accounted for
0.4% and 3.1% of CRCC's total turnover and operating profit in 2006. CRG's
overall margin appears to be higher than CRCC as CRG achieved better
operating performance at the property division and equipment manufacturing
division. CRCC achieved higher operating efficiency as CRCC's sales and
net profit per staff were higher.
We consider both CRG and CRCC are high quality railway plays in China. The
industry outlook for both companies is favourable given the government's
plan to expand the railway network aggressively in the coming years. In
view of their proven track records and dominant market position, both
companies are well-positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in the
railway industry. Apart from railway construction, there are other growth
drivers, including a.) expansion into overseas markets, b.) expansion into
other business and c.) improvement in operating efficiency.
Without an indicative price range, it is impossible to do a comparison
between CRG and CRCC based on valuation (such as PER, EV/EBITDA or PEG).
However, we believe that CRCC is likely to price attractively in order to
lure investors given the current market environment.
Differences between China Railway Group (CRC) and China Railway
Construction Corporation (CRCC)
China Railway Group China Railway Construction Corporation
Ticker 390 HK
FY06 Turnover
breakdown (%)
Infrastructure 91.4 95.3
Construction
Survey, Design 2.7 2.2
and Consulting
Services
Equipment 2.7 0.9
manufacturing
Property 1.2 0.4
Others 4.1 1.9
FY06 Operating
profit breakdown
(%)
Infrastructure 60.5 85.8
Construction
Survey, Design 9.5 3.3
and Consulting
Services
Equipment 12.1 0.7
manufacturing
Property 11.6 3.1
Others 4.9 7.1
FY06 Operating
margin (%)
Infrastructure 1.6 1.4
Construction
Survey, Design 8.5 2.4
and Consulting
Services
Equipment 10.9 1.3
manufacturing
Property 22.7 13.2
Others 2.9 5.8
FY06 turnover Railway (43.7%) Railway (42.0%)
Breakdown of Highway (30.0%) Highway (38.9%)
Infrastructure Municipal works (26.3%) Municipal works (19.1%)
Construction
division
Survey & design 1 2
institutes
Equipment Largest manufacturers of Largest large track maintenance
manufacturing turnouts. machinery manufacturer
Sole developer and manufacturer
currently producing high
manganese steel welded frogs
and the only manufacturer
currently producing
acceleration turnouts in China
Property 6.3m 5.4m
development (GFA Beijing, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Guiyang, Changsha,Xuzhou, Baoding,
m2) Guiyang, Guangzhou, Wuhan Hebei, Chongqing, Laixi, Beijing
Location Shijizhuang and Anging Qingdao and Linan.
Other business 3 gold mines (1 in Inner Potential investment in cement
Mongoia and two in Congo), 1 production in Nigeria
cobalt mine in Congo
Ranking in China 1 2
Listed China Raiwlay Erju Nil
subsidiaries
No. of staff 276,504 183,308
Sales per staff 555,392 837,989
(Rmb) 7,400 6,628
Net profit per
staff (Rmb)
Future growth Property development, overseas Cement production, margin improvement
drivers projects, margin improvement, especially at the survey, design and
mining and BT and BOT projects consulting services division and
equipment manufacturing division
(FY08 PER) 36 n.a.
Mkt cap. (US$m) 12,301 4,000.
Major subsidiaries under CRG and CRCC
China Railway Group China Railway Construction
Corporation
China Overseas Engineering Group China Civil Engineering
Construction Corp
China Railway No.1 Engineering Group China Railway 11th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway No.2 Engineering Group China Railway 12th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway No.3 Engineering Group China Railway 13th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway No.4 Engineering Group China Railway 14th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway No.5 Engineering Group China Railway 15th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway No.6 Engineering Group China Railway 16th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway No.7 Engineering Group China Railway 17th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway No.8 Engineering Group China Railway 18th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway No.9 Engineering Group China Railway 19th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway No.10 Engineering Group China Railway 20th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway Major Bridge Engineering China Railway 21th Construction
Group Bureau Corp
China Railway Tunnel Group China Railway 22th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway Electrification Engineering China Railway 23th Construction
Group Bureau Corp
China railway Construction Group (CRCG) China Railway 24th Construction
Bureau Corp
China Railway Eryuan Engineering Goup China Railway 25th Construction
Bureau Corp
The Third Railway Survey and Design Zhong-Tie Construction Group
Institute Corp
China Railway Engineering Consulting Group China Railway Material Corp
China Railway Major Bridge Reconnaissance
Design Institute
Huatie Engineering Cosulting Co
Martech Marine & China Railway Engineering
China Railway Shanhaiguan Bridge Group
Baoji China Railway Turnout & Bridge
Development
China Railway Baoji Machinery
China Railway heavy Machinery
China Railway Northwest Research Institute
China Railway Southwest Research Institute
China Railway Engineering Machinery
Research & Design Institute
HangRan Management Institute
China Railway Engineering Institute
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